Canadian premier is back on the ropes

Canadian Prime Minister Jean Chretien has no plans to step down until February 2004. At least, that is what he said when he suddenly announced that he would retire at the end of his current term, surprising many in his ruling Liberal Party, and even some of the country's top political pundits. But the prime minister also insisted that, until then, he would be the man in charge in Ottawa.

It was a well-calculated move to outflank his long-time leadership rival, former finance minister Paul Martin, and clear the way for another party man – or woman – of his choice to succeed him. Martin's stocks were rising in the country even after he was thrown out of the cabinet, and Chretien was trying to put the best face possible as he lost control of the party.

The surprising move caught the Martin camp off guard and the prime minister managed to staunch the bleeding. But only for a short time, it appears. For, this week he is back on the ropes, hanging for dear life.

To make matters worse, the blow that put him there did not come from Martin – well, not directly – but from a restive group of MPs in his own parliamentary caucus.

In an unprecedented rebuke to Chretien, one third of his parliamentary group broke ranks and voted with the opposition on a procedural motion that the former finance minister enthusiastically supported. It was designed to strip the prime minister of his prerogative to decide who gets to run parliamentary committees.

The stinging defeat has now turned Chretien into a lame duck. Questions have started coming fast and furious, and they are all about whether the prime minister is the man in charge in Ottawa as he claimed, and whether he could remain in office until his planned date of retirement in February, 2004.

Changed course

Chretien actually got in this hole by himself. He turned the procedural vote into a test of his authority over his caucus when he called the measure anti-democratic and ordered his cabinet members and the parliamentary group to vote to defeat the measure.

But when he realised a mutiny was in the making in his caucus on the motion, he changed course and agreed to a free vote, allowing MPs to go with their conscience rather than risk forcing them to toe the party line.

The Liberal MPs knew he wanted the issue defeated, but they still voted with the opposition and Martin, handing out an unprecedented 174-87 snub to the government. Other than his ministers, the only votes of support that Chretien got against the measure were from the parliamentary secretaries and the party whip, who owe their jobs to the prime minister.

One junior minister, Stephen Owen, even dared to boycott the vote after opposing Chretien and his cabinet colleagues at a meeting on the morning of the vote. The word on the grapevine is that his head may be on the chopping block before long.

Martin is not crowing, meanwhile, describing the measure only as an "important step forward" to give MPs a greater voice on matters coming before parliament, and refusing to claim any moral victory over Chretien.

But it is no secret in parliamentary circles in Ottawa that he worked hard with the Liberal backbenchers to secure the votes for the opposition victory. In fact, when the vote counting started on Tuesday, Martin was the first on his feet to vote for the opposition motion.

"I voted for this measure because I believe that it represents a positive change," Martin was quoted telling reporters later. "It speaks to the independence and the authority of MPs and it also will strengthen the committee system, which is a very, very important foundation for the way policy is developed in the parliamentary system."

Martin had, in fact, released a plan for parliamentary reforms last month in which he called for the choosing of heads and deputy heads of parliamentary committees by secret ballot.

Chretien opposed, saying it would not serve democracy to have parliamentary procedure to be conducted with private votes. "We are elected to express our views," he said. "If the caucus wants to make secret votes mandatory, I don't believe it serves democracy very well."

Naturally, Chretien is livid, and is questioning the wisdom of his party MPs supporting an opposition move against the parliamentary system of government. He is warning that such displays of party disunity would cost the Liberals the next election, reminding them that it was such party infighting that led to the trouncing of former prime minister Brian Mulroney's Progressive Conservative Party in 1993.

The MPs who voted for the measure are standing firm. They say they did no wrong. They are taking back their independence, their authority and their effectiveness. Some even say that Tuesday's precedent would be the start of a new era in parliamentary democracy in Canada.

Martin has now shown the way to the backbench MPs on how to do just that. He has shown them how they can enhance their standing and improve their clout within the government. The prime minister has been forced to allow his MPs to vote freely on such procedural issues.

But will the insurrection continue? Political pundits are divided. Some say that pressure will now increase on the prime minister to advance his retirement plans. They say the display of open defiance by the MPs has caused fissures within the party hierarchy and some party elders are quietly sharpening their knives against the prime minister.

They fear a pattern has been set and that it would not be broken without some damage to the government and the party. Even the ministers who are contenders to the party leadership are now at some risk of being damaged.

Others believe that by prompting so many Liberals backbenchers to defy Chretien, he has fired a fresh shot across the prime minister's bow and will now sit back and see what happens.

Risk

But the risk is that since he is actively promoting a number of other ideas for parliamentary reforms as part of his leadership campaign, there is a good chance that the opposition will seize on them to embarrass the PM and the government, or put Martin on the spot.

Martin has also painted himself into a corner by announcing his reform plans. As it happened on this occasion, opposition could make use of these reforms to present more private member bills and force the government's hand, and Martin and his supporters in the Liberal caucus would be obliged to support them, or they would be compromised, if they don't.

The opposition leader Stephen Harper, says Chretien and the government can take this for granted. He promised that the opposition will try to find other ways to take advantage of the policy splits in Liberal ranks on a range of democratic reform motions by enlisting the support of disgruntled Liberals. "This is a problem now for the government to come to grips with," he says. "It is not my problem."

"And if Martin and his supporters back away from them or waffle, they will be damaged as well. In this situation, the question now whether Chretien can survive the winter," Gilles Paquette, Director, Centre of Governance, University of Ottawa, says.

"He has lost the ability to govern effectively. This is an ineffective and inoper