Canada nervous as Iraqi endgame nears

On the face of it, at least, there is a sense of inevitability about it. U.S. President George W. Bush, not finding the 'smoking gun' he was looking for in the 12,000-page Iraqi declaration, is rattling his sabres and flexing muscles again.

The Iraqi report has just been branded a sham, and its prohibited weapons list 'inaccurate and incomplete,' and in violation of the demand in the United Nations Security Council resolution 1441.

The president claims U.S. intelligence knows better, has evidence as to where the Iraqi President Saddam Hussain has stashed them.

But instead of laying them out on the table and allowing the UN weapons inspectors to go and locate the weapons not included in the declaration, Bush is indicating that his administration wants to orchestrate the search strategy from now on, direct UN inspectors to places in Iraq where they may be able to find the elusive nuclear, chemical and biological stockpiles that would prove Saddam to be a liar and a cheat.

Diplomatic offensive

To drive home the point that he means business, Bush is about to make another important speech, demanding UN Security Council action. He has also started pre-positioning the U.S. military forces throughout the Middle East and has launched a high-pressure diplomatic offensive to secure support for a military coalition against Iraq.

A team of senior U.S. diplomats and defence experts are now circling the globe, visiting 51 countries, including Canada, soliciting commitments to go to war, if Baghdad fails to fully comply next time round.

Does this mean this is the start of the endgame, the countdown to another war in the Gulf? Or, is this more pressure being applied on Saddam to see whether he is ready to blink? Whatever the case, the aggressive U.S. approach is making everyone nervous.

Canadians included. Ottawa is once again under intense pressure to make up its mind about what to do on Iraq. Leaders here are having trouble deciding on a coherent Iraqi policy that would satisfy the Washington because most Canadians are still firmly against Canada going to war in Iraq.

As they see it, the Bush administration is in too much of a haste to invade Iraq. Americans are more interested in unearthing a 'smoking gun' for this purpose in order to oust Saddam than getting rid of any weapons of mass destructions.

The new demand for a more stringent weapons strategy is designed to goad Baghdad into resisting, push the Iraqi leader further against the wall and provoke him into doing something foolish. So that U.S. can use that as the pretext for launching the long-planned invasion.

Most Canadians are ready to give Bush the benefit of doubt, that his almost paranoid fear of another September 11-type terrorist attack is driving this aggressive policy.

But this indecent haste with which Washington is pursuing this policy is making them apprehensive, question U.S. motives in Iraq.

Why not give the evidence that U.S. has to the UN arms inspectors? What try to ram rod them into searches without respecting Iraqi sovereignty, their traditions, their customs? Why humiliate a whole nation just because the powers that be in Washington can't seem to get over the fear that the next terrorist attack on the United States would be a chemical, biological or a nuclear weapon made in Saddam's Iraq.

Most Canadians also cannot understand the U.S. opposition to giving Baghdad a second chance to correct any errors or omissions on its weapons list, if it has made such omissions. No second chance for Iraq, said presidential spokesman Ari Fleischer, this week. "It is too late for any amendments. This was Iraq's last chance to inform the world in an accurate, complete and full way about its arsenal."

From a Canadian perspective, such hard-nosed positions are making the U.S. look arrogant and conceited, and they recoil from wanting any part of it. To government leaders it seems ludicrous why the White House should hesitate to pass on any information it has about any hidden Iraqi arsenal to the UN weapons inspectors if such information can play a pivotal role in deciding whether another war in the Gulf can be avoided.

In their eyes, the new weapons regime, mandated by the UN last month, seems effective enough to do the job, provided the UN weapons inspection team is given a reasonable amount of time.

Iraqis have co-operated and the inspections so far have not led to any confrontations like in the 1990s. Even the Iraq's monitoring directorate has praised the new inspectors for their 'professionalism' and the respect they have shown for Iraqi tradition and values.

"It seems that things are now engaged, and have gone well so far," says Ron Cleminson, a Canadian former weapons inspector and member of a UN expert advisory group. "The inspectors are getting a degree of co-operation from Iraqis with no real glitches."

Message

As a result, Cleminson believes the inspectors are in a much better position this time round to detect discrepancies more quickly. But the message coming out of Washington is increasingly negative and increasingly bellicose, which makes the task of unearthing any prohibited weapons doubly harder and Iraqis twice as more nervous.

According to an Arab diplomat in Ottawa, no one can be sure about what happens next, but the reluctance on the part of Bush administration to give a free hand to the arms inspectors or put out the evidence against Iraq, like President John F. Kennedy did when the former Soviet Union denied it had any missile batteries installed in Cuba in 1961, showed that White House is more interested in a confrontation with Saddam than resolving this conflict peacefully.

"Maybe they have evidence," the diplomat who spoke on condition of anonymity, said. "Maybe they don't. We don't know one or the other for certain. But one thing is clear. The White House seems to feel time is running out and has decided to push the envelope. The question is whether the other Security Council members would go along?

"Or, is this all more muscle flexing designed to tighten the screws on Saddam one more notch to see if he is ready to blink?"

The world will know soon enough. Bush officials are due to complete its analysis of Iraq's long declaration and take the contradictory evidence to the Security Council, perhaps to get the chief weapons inspector Hans Blix to go after the hidden weapons.

Blix will report back about Iraq compliance by January 27, and the decision about war should not be long delayed thereafter.