It's started.
It's started.
The World Cup, I mean. It is estimated that more than 500 million people watched the opening game on television in nearly 200 countries. In addition to that number, there must be at least a similar number of people who do not have access to a television, or the money needed to watch, who are following the games on radio or by e-mail, telephone, newspaper and word of mouth in a huge number of countries. Even people in countries whose teams did not qualify have their views on who they think will win or who they want to win.
Again, it is estimated that billions of man-hours will be lost during the month-long tournament and an epidemic will hit the world. Although doctors may not be aware of it, probably because they too will be watching the World Cup.
However, past tournaments have also shown an upturn in motivation and productivity in countries whose teams have progressed through the tournament. So, perhaps you should hope that a country in which you are investing gets through to the knockout round at least.
Therefore, I thought it might be interesting to look through the first-round groups and see if we can pick who should go through on their investment performance or form over the past year.
Group A
France, Uruguay, Senegal and Denmark
The obvious choice here is France. Although it has been going through a bad period of late, the economy has shown small signs of recovery lately.
Investing in Uruguay, in the main is limited to investments into Latin American funds which have not done well and have been handicapped by the problems in Argentina.
Denmark, when it comes to investment, tends to be bunched with either Europe or the rest of Scandinavia, where investment performance has been affected by the downturn in telecommunications.
Senegal could be the surprise package, in as much as I know nothing about the economy there and how and if you can invest.
Group B
Spain, Paraguay, Slovenia and South Africa
Spain, like much of Europe, has been going through a slowdown over the last year and so, for now, perhaps you had better limit your investment to that retirement property that you had planned, until the economy picks up.
Paraguay, I am afraid, I know little about apart from the fact that it has one of the largest 'duty-free' areas in the world on its borders with Brazil and Argentina where a great deal of profit is made legally and, allegedly, illegally.
Slovenia is one to avoid at present unless you are an adventurous entrepreneur.
South Africa is such a wonderful country and a great place for a holiday, especially with the fall of the rand against the dollar and other major currencies but a real speculation until the unrest in Zimbabwe and the political situation is more stable.
Group C
Brazil, China, Turkey and Costa Rica
Brazil has always been regarded as one of the richest countries in the world when it comes to resources, but the volatility of the market means it is only for the investor who knows exactly what he is doing here.
China is very interesting. Over the last six months, since the country joined the World Trade Organisation, a lot of money has been invested in funds investing in the country. Worth a small investment I would say.
Turkey is another country for the specialist only. Huge volatility is seen in the market caused by both economic and political concerns.
Costa Rica is one of my favourite countries in the world to visit with its huge national parks, active volcanos and empty beaches but I think I will stick to being a tourist rather than an investor.
Group D
South Korea, the U.S., Poland and Portugal
South Korea is a country that I recommended readers consider for investment in an article at the beginning of the year, and this has been borne out by the fact that 14 of the top performing funds over the past year invest there. The decision now is whether growth will continue.
The U.S. is a country in which everyone should have a portion of their portfolio. However, at present, the dollar is declining, debt is increasing and stocks, in general, are considered to be overvalued.
However, world economic growth is still likely to come from this area and so, if you are not investing here, this could be a good time to buy, providing you think long term.
I have clients from Poland and they tell me what a wonderful place it is. I believe that it is worth an investment but only as part of an east European fund. Entry into the European community for a number of countries in this region could make this sector an interesting investment.
Portugal, like Spain, has suffered and thus investment here should be part of a good Euro-pean fund.
Group E
Germany, Ireland, Saudi Arabia and Cameroon
Germany has been going through a bad period both football and investment wise. However, there are now signs of them coming out of recession but I would prefer to spread the risk by investing in a European fund.
Ireland has been one of the fastest-growing countries in Europe but has been suffering from mild inflation due to the low interest rates it has been forced to adopt as a member of the Euro-system.
Saudi Arabia's stock market is difficult for most of us to invest in.
Cameroon
pass.
Group F
Argentina, England, Nigeria and Sweden
Choose Argentina if you think that things cannot get any worse and therefore must get better. If I were you, I would consider investing there for the next World Cup rather than this one.
There is no doubt that the UK economy has been one of the best performing in Europe over the past year even though no great gain has been seen in average share prices. The future looks good though as I believe that the UK will enter the European Eco-nomic Monetary Union, which will mean that the government must bring down the price of sterling before then, which should give a boost to exports and the economy.
Well, there is obviously a lot of money to be made in Nigeria if the number of letters I get from that country asking me to participate in schemes is a guide. Apparently, these will make me untold riches if I just send a few hundred dollars. However, I would prefer not to risk my money.
The success of Sweden depends almost entirely on how you believe that the telecommunications industry will do.
Group G
Italy, Croatia, Ecuador and Mexico
I am afraid that I am going to sit on the fence here in as much that I would prefer a good European fund than invest in Italy direct other than by way of their food, which I love.
Croatia, not for me, I am afraid.
Ecuador is another country that I love as a tourist. The Galapagos Islands are one of the most interesting places I have been. However it's not a place that I would invest in.
The Mexican peso appreciated more than any other currency against the dollar in 2001 but it is a bit too volatile for me when it comes to investment.
Group H
Japan, Russia, Belgium and Tunisia
Invest in Japan only if you are thinking for