Benazir Bhutto needs to reinvent herself

A Gulf News Online poll on the query "Should Benazir Bhutto now return to Pakistan" has come up with a dead even match of 46.4 per cent. For Benazir this may not be a surprise since she is faced with the same dilemma: to go or not to go.

Events of the last few months have confounded this confusion. Although the former Pakistani prime minister is not a stranger to the 'slings and arrows of outrageous fortune', she has never been the one to run away from a difficult situation. Having lived through a very trying last four years, she may have much to smile about after the "relief" by Pakistan's Supreme Court, but this smile does not hide the fact that she is no closer to a homecoming than she was before the court verdict.

She and her husband Asif Zardari were convicted by a Pakistani court on corruption charges in 1998 and handed down stiff prison sentences and hefty fines. Benazir was already abroad at the time of the conviction and since then has preferred to live in exile. She maintained throughout that the judge who convicted her was biased and the trial unfair. Earlier this month the country's Supreme Court overturned her conviction and called for a retrial. Benazir's political career got a fresh lease of life and now she says she stands vindicated.

But all is not over. The military government in Pakistan is framing fresh charges against her and she may face arrest if she lands on Pakistani soil. Pakistan's Chief Executive General Pervez Musharraf has on numerous occasions said there is no place in politics for both Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto, each of whom has twice served as prime minister. Sharif is now in exile in Saudi Arabia while Bhutto shuttles between Dubai and London.

Faced with such a situation, can she make another comeback? Will Pakistanis accept her for a third time? And does the evolving political dispensation in Pakistan have a place for someone like her? These questions are being hotly debated as the Supreme Court-dictated deadline for general elections draws nearer.

But like it or not, the Bhutto factor is back. Benazir is easily the most recognised Pakistani in the world today. Also perhaps the most controversial one. The Bhutto name has always evoked strong sentiments, both positive and negative, but none more so than now. No other political party has such a solid and unbreakable vote bank in Pakistan than the one Benazir leads, but none has attracted harsher criticism. These extremes have come to define Benazir's person, her politics and the way she is perceived by people everywhere.

Heady successes and heart-wrenching personal tragedies, glamour of political power and rigours of opposition, Benazir has tasted it all, and it is perhaps the sum of all these that constitutes her continuing relevance to Pakistan's turbulent and often vicious world of politics.

Added to this is the fact that she inevitably finds herself on the wrong side of the 'Establishment', and hence becomes the underdog, the rebel, the 'people's leader' fighting against the 'brutal state'. It is in this role that she has flourished the most – the relentless campaigner that she is – and it is in this role that she finds herself today.

But two stints as prime minister (1988-1990, 1993-1996) have left their scars on her impressive bio-data. Someone once remarked that had she been as bad in opposition as she was in power, she would have been history a long time ago. Benazir fervently defends her record as prime minister, but even her diehard supporters admit, though grudgingly, that her performance in power was a huge disappointment. But all this is now in the past and she admits she has learnt from her mistakes.

Pakistani politicians and generals however do not have a good record of learning from mistakes. Had politicians learnt not to clash with the Establishment, Pakistan's history would have been different. And so too if generals had learnt that army rule is no solution to the country's problems. Since the past has a direct bearing on the future, especially when it comes to Pakistani politics, lessons learnt are future mistakes avoided.

Benazir for her part can take solace from certain facts which strengthen her position as claimant to the Pakistani throne. First, unlike her arch-foe Nawaz Sharif, she remains in firm control of her party, even though she has been in exile for three years. She was appointed her party's chairperson for life – a title which she graciously accepted and has retained despite scathing criticism about donning autocratic robes while advocating democratic values. Undemocratic this might be, but it is also a recognition of the reality that without the Bhutto name, PPP is nothing.

Second, PPP remains the country's largest and most potent political party, despite the battering it received in the 1997 elections and afterwards. After the split of Sharif's PML, PPP is the only party which has a solid support base in three of the four provinces of Pakistan – Punjab, Sindh and NWFP. In the fourth, Balochistan, Benazir is in the process of making strong and powerful allies.

Third, with the setting aside of her conviction, Benazir now has no proven accusations of corruption against her. While the general perception about her financial affairs may still be negative, her biased trial has indeed diluted this perception and forced people to rethink allegations against her. If one trial could be doctored, what about other charges?

Fourth, no other political leader in Pakistan has as extensive a network of global contacts as she does. She may have let down many a Western supporter, but she can still open doors and make herself be heard. While a strong Western constituency may be a drawback in certain circumstances, its value increases with the pace of globalisation. No one knows this better than Benazir.

Lastly, based on the above facts, Benazir Bhutto clearly remains Pakistan's most powerful politician. This means she cannot be ignored. She can be charged, threatened, and maligned, but she cannot be ignored.

She can however be overtaken by changing times. Her strengths make her a force to reckon with as far as the Establishment is concerned, but public opinion may be less accommodating. She is the top politician on a comparative scale, but is public opinion ready to risk politicians – again? General Musharraf draws his strength from the contempt that people at large feel for Pakistani politicians from both sides of the divide.

True the generals are not perceived as Caesers themselves, but then this leadership vacuum is the real dilemma which faces Pakistani voters. In this enthusiasm-starved environment, 'less-corrupt, less inefficient and less-insincere' are seen as qualities.

There is thus a swelling body of opinion which feels the Old Order must be dismantled and a new one erected. Benazir leads the largest political party but she is still associated with the Old Order, and the possibility of her return conjures up images of the return of the Old Order. There is no shortage of those who point out that she does not allow a democratic culture within her own party, that she rules like an autocrat, abhors dissent, and is a disaster when in power. They equate her past stints as prime minister with corruption, nepotism and lack of direction. In short, being the biggest politician ma