Activists struggle to shake Egypt's public from its inertia

No one is expecting President Hosni Mubarak's regime to embrace political change in Egypt with alacrity.

But the glacial pace with which Mubarak has been prepared to lift restrictions on political freedom in the Arab world's most populous nation is galvanising opposition demands for fundamental reform in the run-up to polls this year.

So too is the probability that the 76-year-old president, in power since 1981, will seek to extend his mandate for a fifth term to 2011 or as some speculate, in spite of presidential denials hand over to his son, Gamal.

Last week Safwat Al Sharif, secretary-general of the ruling National Democratic party (NDP), laid out the year's electoral timetable.

In May the NDP-controlled parliament will nominate a single presidential candidate whose name will be put to popular referendum in September. Parliamentary polls, in which a handful of authorised parties can take part, are due in November.

It is a system that delivers the same results each time. With strict limitations on opposition freedom and its most organised opponents the Muslim Brotherhood outlawed, the NDP has never faced a real contest.

Last week Nawal Saadawi, a feminist author, Saad Al Din Ibrahim, a liberal sociologist, and Mohammad Hassanain, a former MP, launched a campaign to collect a million signatures in support of a direct contest for the presidency in place of the referendum.

All three have said they would present themselves as candidates, although sceptics say none has a popular following.

Free to present

In comments carried in Cairo newspapers on Sunday, Mubarak said he welcomed the competition. Anyone was free to present themselves for nomination to parliament, he said: "Let them go ahead I won't get angry".

Another petition launched in October by an eclectic group including trade unionists, rights activists, leftists and Islamists under the banner "Popular Campaign for Reform" now has about 2,000 signatures.

They are calling for Mubarak to stand down and for the powers of the presidency to be trimmed alongside far-reaching changes outlined on Monday in a constitution drafted by some members.

Abdul-Halim Qandil, the campaign's spokesman, says it is preparing its own list of potential presidential candidates from among prominent thinkers.

This would be a largely symbolic affair, aimed at stimulating popular imagination of what could be. But it is another sign that opposition intellectuals are becoming more pro-active as they seek to move their agenda beyond elitist circles and shake the Egyptian public out of its inertia.

"We believe democracy will come … by struggle and direct confrontation rather than by declarations and appeals to the regime," Qandil said.

Last month the group staged a demonstration in central Cairo. Although riot police probably outnumbered the 400 or so activists who turned up, it was significant in the context of Egypt that the protest took place at all. Until recently its message to Mubarak "Enough" would have been unthinkable.

Willing to change

Ahmad Seif Al Islam, a rights activist who was jailed and tortured in the 1980s and who has helped co-ordinate the campaign, believes that government efforts to persuade Western allies and national opinion that it is willing to change, at its own pace, have tempered the instinct to crack down.

He recognises however, that the public without whom the opposition has little leverage remains largely indifferent.

So far the NDP has been able to brush off demands for constitutional reform, arguing that stability must come first in a turbulent region, and promising a more lively debate after this year's voting.