A troubled state, not a failed one

Pakistani Foreign Minister Khurshid Kasuri is not too happy with the progress of the composite dialogue between New Delhi and Islamabad.

He suspects that the Indian Government has deliberately slowed down its pace and he attributes it to "some hawks" in the Ministry of External Affairs. "We know this from our own sources", he says.

"But neither President [Pervez Musharraf] nor I have given up hope despite many Pakistanis blaming us for having been taken for a ride once again."

Khurshid feels personally embarrassed because his reputation is that of a pro-India liberal. Since he has been part of Track II people-to-people contact in the past, he clutches to any straw in the sea of despondency.

For example, the day I met him at Islamabad, he saw a positive message in the statement by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh that he wanted "out of the box" solutions to settle the country's disputes with neighbours, Pakistan and China.

The breakdown of talks on the Baglihar project was on Khurshid's mind. He did not go beyond Pakistan's stated position that India's design of gates was "defective".

Yet, he wished there had been a settlement. He admitted, "all this affects normalisation of relations between the two countries".

No visas

I told him I could already see the fallout on people-to-people contact. The Pakistan government had refused visas to some 25 NGOs wanting to attend a peace and friendship seminar at Lahore.

He said he would look into the matter. I gave details to his ministry's director general. Still visas did not come through. The seminar had to be postponed.

Is this a warning by Islamabad that people-to-people contact would be in proportion to the progress made on talks about Kashmir?

The first shelling by Pakistan on the Line of Control (that divides Kashmir) after the ceasefire was also around the same date, January 18, when the peace seminar was scheduled to take place. It was too much of a coincidence.

But for these irritations, I found Lahore and Islamabad, the two cities I visited, friendly. Leave aside the obsequious intelligence men who are all around you, the atmosphere in Pakistan is relaxed.

People talk less of confrontation and more of peace and friendship. Their warmth towards Indians is overwhelming. The press, including Urdu newspapers, is not harsh as it was a year ago.

Indian films are still banned. But you can see them on TV channels at home or in the comfort of your hotel.

India has suddenly shot up in people's estimate. One, its economic progress is followed admiringly. Two, there is great appreciation for the country's democratic polity peaceful change of governments, fair elections and the defined role of the armed forces.

A country which has been ruled by the military, off and on, for 45 years in its life span of 57, is understandably envious of free and open society.

Yet, seldom do the press and people in Pakistan join issue with the armed forces. They are conscious of the limit beyond which they cannot go.

When a few have crossed it, the punishment has been severe. I did not meet anyone during my four-day stay in Pakistan defending the military rule.

But then I also did not meet anyone who would tell me when and how democracy could return to Pakistan.

A feeling of resignation has crept in. But the redeeming factor is that people still talk of politics and parties.

Religious parties are losing their support rapidly. Even otherwise, clerics have never been an endearing entity in Pakistan.

But it goes to the credit of Musharraf that he is trying to give a modern face to Islam. That he is retaining the position of president and that of the chief of army staff is a different story.

The middle class that could challenge the military rule is absorbed in enhancing its standard of living.

Economic growth rate is around five per cent and the US aid is substantial, even to finance the students who want to study in America.

Vehicles on the road have increased in number. So have people at restaurants and hotels. Shops are well stocked and a large number of customers are milling around the malls and markets. Familiar screaming slogans and posters have disappeared from the roadside walls.

Lahore is clean. Its airport, compared to the poky one at Delhi, is elegant and impressive. There is a welcome change even in the drab advertisements which meet your eyes.

Women too figure in the ads. I counted four in the arrival lounge. Unlike India, porters, to the relief of women and senior citizens, collect the luggage from the conveyor belt and take right to your vehicle.

At the immigration desk, a young lady clears you in no time. She is least bothered about your religion its deletion from the Pakistan passport under the government's instructions has evoked opposition from the extremists.

My surprise knew no bounds when I found the lady reading news on PTV bareheaded.

Pakistan is not a failed state. It is a troubled state. All the four provinces of the country, Balochistan, Sindh, the North West Frontier Province and Punjab are in the midst of one problem or the other.

Sectarian violence is increasing, suggesting unrest. Primarily, it is a protest against too much centralisation. The one-man rule in the army-led government has emasculated the provincial governments.

Constant harassment

On the other hand, politicians have very little space to operate from. Both the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) and Nawaz Sharif's Muslim League in the opposition are constantly harassed so that their members are forced to join the King's Party, the Muslim League (Quaid-e-Azam).

The most disturbed province is Balochistan. True, a rape case triggered the trouble which led to the recent attack on Sui gas installation now taken over by the army.

But essentially, it is the feeling that the Balochis are always pushed to the wall.

Another incident that has rocked Pakistan is the sectarian violence in Gilgit, up in the north.

Agha Ziauddin, a Shiite leader, and his guard, Tanvir Hussain, were murdered the other day. The army has intervened to restore peace.

Against religious fanaticism, this action by the military comes as a relief. This reaction may tell upon democracy but many Pakistanis have come to regard the army as protectors.

Kuldip Nayar is a former Indian High Commissioner to the UK and a former Rajya Sabha MP. He can be contacted at knayar@gulfnews.com