Is the Iranian defector Amiri a double agent?

New York/Washington: The CIA is investigating whether the Iranian nuclear scientist who defected to the US but then chose to fly back to Tehran last week was a double agent, The Sunday Telegraph has learned.

The strange case of Shahram Amiri has puzzled US intelligence chiefs who approved a $5 million (Dh18.35million) payment to him for information about Iran's illicit nuclear programme.

Former US intelligence agents have predicted that Amiri will disappear into prison or even face death, despite the hero's welcome he was accorded as he was met by his wife and hugged his seven-year-old son. But his decision to fly back voluntarily, claiming outlandishly that he was kidnapped by CIA and Saudi agents during a pilgrimage to Saudi Arabia last June and then tortured in the US, has prompted suspicions that he was a double agent working for Iran all along.

There are also questions about why the Iranian authorities allowed him to travel alone to Saudi Arabia, despite his sensitive work, and why he left his family behind if he was intending to leave Iran permanently. And his role as one of the sources for the now heavily disputed 2007 National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) that downplayed Iran's suspected nuclear weapons operations has raised further doubts.

The US intelligence community has been working on a new NIE that will give a much more alarming assessment of the Islamic republic's atomic bomb ambitions. The CIA nonetheless believed that Amiri was a genuine defector as he was debriefed in Arizona and revealed information about how the Tehran university where he worked was the covert headquarters for the country's atomic programme.

Careful vetting

"The CIA would not have been paying $5 million unless they had vetted him carefully and believed he was genuine," said Art Keller, a former agency case officer who worked on Iran's nuclear and missile programmes.

"They think he was legitimate. Iranian nuclear physicists do not grow on trees. And to get someone with really good access, sometimes you have to wave a really big potential payday for him."

Another former CIA operative, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said that the agency was investigating whether Amiri was a double agent — a possible explanation for his mysterious actions.

Even if was not a ‘double', there are fears that he will reveal key information to his Iranian interrogators about what US officials know about the country's nuclear programme — itself vital intelligence in the game of atomic cat-and-mouse between Tehran and the West. Amiri turned up last week at the Pakistani diplomatic mission in Washington, which handles Tehran's interests as the US and Iran do not have relations, and requested a ticket and money to fly home.

He had previously released bizarre and contradictory videos on YouTube suggesting that he was happily studying in America or was being held there against his will.

Scott Stewart, vice-president of tactical intelligence for Stratfor, a private intelligence company, said: "Amiri was already in real trouble if was a real defector. But if the CIA suspect that he was a double agent or even a fabricator, it would make sense to mess with the minds of the Iranians by putting this sort of information out there."

Propaganda war

And a CIA analyst with direct knowledge of the case said that the returned scientist had become the centre of a propaganda war and that the agency was ‘disinclined' to remain silent while Tehran scored points against Washington.

The analyst, who cannot be named because he is not authorised to speak on this issue, said there had been an internal debate about the rights and wrongs of revealing details on Amiri's history as a spy for the US.

"It might look as if the CIA is taking revenge on Amiri for returning to Iran and that by telling the US media about his cooperation and long record as an agent they are simply signing his death warrant and ensuring that the Iranian authorities would eventually execute him," he said.

"But in reality, whatever the CIA says at this point will have little impact on Amiri's fate."

He also acknowledged that it was possible that Amiri was a double agent and that he had been sent to the US by Iranian intelligence to plant false information and that he always intended to return.

"If that is the case, he will become an Iranian hero and the CIA's charges will do him no harm," he said. "If, on the other hand, he was a genuine defector who returned because he had a change of heart, there is nothing the CIA can do to protect him."