UAE’s GDP growth to slow next year, says NBAD

Abu Dhabi: The growth in the UAE’s gross domestic product (GDP) next year is expected to slow to 3.2 per cent from 3.31 per cent this year, Giyas Gokkent, chief economist for National Bank of Abu Dhabi (NBAD) said on Tuesday.

Speaking to reporters shortly after NBAD released its Economic Outlook- 2012 which covers Gulf Cooperation Council states, Egypt and Jordan, Gokkent said there are expectations of a global economic slowdown next year because of problems in the Euro zone and due to an anticipated fall in China’s economic growth.

“If there’s a slowdown in China, that will have a bearing on oil prices,” said Gokkent.

Gokkent said NBAD expected oil prices to average $102 a barrel, next year, down from this year’s projected average price of $108.5 a barrel.

NBAD said the annual headline inflation is projected to rise to 2 per cent in 2013.

It said the UAE’s crude oil output rose 5 per cent on the year in the first half of 2012. However, NBAD cautioned that the UAE’s oil production growth may be limited in 2013.

“UAE is in a position to raise output, given availability of new capacity if events continue to unfold as they have in 2012 with Iranian output declining. This would result in an upward revision to our current growth estimate,” NBAD said.