Global growth opportunities shift

London : Companies could find more export opportunities in countries such as Libya and India than in former favourites such as France and Germany in the next few years, an analysis by UK Trade and Investment finds.

The study by the government's export promotion arm gives UK plc a surprising insight into where it should focus efforts as the credit crunch turns world trade on its head.

Developed countries are set for years of slow growth while emerging countries with natural resources and fast-growing populations have rising demand to meet, the study says.

Leeds University Business School compiled the analysis by looking at International Monetary Fund data for 52 countries.

Between 2005 and 2007, the countries offering the best opportunities for UK exporters were mostly traditional trading partners, such as the US, Germany and even Belgium, with China ninth.

Between 2012 and 2014, the predicted top three are China, the US and India, with Libya fourth, Ukraine fifth and Russia sixth. Romania in seventh place is the only European Union member in the top 10, while Sweden is the sole west European country in the top 20. Belgium slips from sixth to 44th.

Adam Cross of the university's centre for international business said: "UK Trade and Investment asked us where the growth opportunities for exports would be in the future. The results were surprising. China and India we have known about for some time but these other places are really only just emerging.

"Mexico, Libya and Romania are difficult countries to do business in. But they are growing successfully. Look at Nigeria, a resource-rich country of 140 million people. If it can improve its institutions it could develop very quickly."

The study did not look at volumes of trade, which would remain higher with neighbours such as France for many years, but merely opportunities for growth.

Cross cautioned that operating in many countries could be difficult, with corruption and counterfeiting rife. "The emphasis is very much on growth. The countries highlighted tend to have big population growth and lots of commodities to export," he said.

Professor Peter Buckley, lead author, said: "I think even the most seasoned observer of business would raise an eyebrow at the prospect of Egypt and Pakistan potentially becoming a bigger draw for UK plc than Canada and Saudi Arabia."

The report, Global Market Attractiveness Post ‘Credit Crunch', ranked the 52 main trading partners using an index based on IMF data for past and projected gross domestic product, purchasing power parity growth levels, and share in British exports of those countries.

— Financial Times