Oil prices jump on Gulf tensions, putting March fuel costs in focus for UAE drivers

Dubai: UAE petrol and diesel prices for March will be announced today. Fuel became cheaper again in February, but oil prices have jumped in the past week as Iran-US tensions returned to the spotlight. That shift raises the chances of a change at the pump next month.
The UAE Fuel Price Committee set February 2026 rates at Dh2.45 for Super 98, Dh2.33 for Special 95, Dh2.26 for E-Plus 91, and Dh2.52 for diesel. In January 2026, prices were higher: Super 98 Dh2.53, Special 95 Dh2.42, E-Plus 91 Dh2.34, diesel Dh2.55.
So motorists have now seen two straight months of cuts since December. UAE petrol and diesel prices are reviewed every month and are based on average global oil prices and refined fuel costs from the previous period. When oil rises, pump prices often follow. When oil falls, prices usually ease too.
Historical data shows fuel prices climbed through mid-2025, peaked around October, eased into December, and then fell sharply in January. Over the past year, UAE motorists have seen several increases and cuts, showing how quickly shifts in global oil prices can show up at the pump.
Oil prices have climbed to their strongest levels in months as worries grew over the risk of disruption in the Middle East. Brent held near $71-mark off late, with markets focused on US-Iran nuclear talks.
Another factor analysts attribute the recent price rise to is a geopolitical risk premium in crude. Daniel Yergin of S&P Global said oil has about a $10 “premium” tied to uncertainty over US-Iran tensions, with Brent touching $72.33 on February 23.
Right now, the most fact-based direction is: March prices are more likely to rise slightly from February than fall again. Why? Oil prices are higher now than they were during the period that fed into February’s pump cuts.
The current driver is risk, not a sudden shortage. Yergin added that prices would be lower on supply-and-demand alone and described the market as oversupplied, with anxiety doing much of the work.
What does that mean for you? If tensions cool and oil prices slip back, March changes could stay small. If the risk premium stays in place through the pricing window, a modest increase in March becomes more likely, especially for diesel, which can react faster when global supply routes look threatened.
March pump prices may edge up after two months of cuts.
A sharp jump still looks less likely unless the Gulf situation worsens enough to keep oil near recent highs.
The official March rates will be confirmed today, when the new price list is released.
This outlook uses current market prices and reported developments. UAE petrol and diesel prices are set by the UAE Fuel Price Committee and can differ if global oil markets move before the official announcement.