How high will Abu Dhabi-London fares rise after British Airways' decision?

Dubai: British Airways’ decision to suspend Abu Dhabi to London Heathrow from Summer 2025 will lead to a spike in fares to one of the most popular destinations from the UAE. It will require other airlines to significantly add new flights on this route for the fare increases to be managed, say travel agents.

Some of what could be in store in six-seven months is already playing out. Current fares on UK bound flights from the UAE are on course for up to a 28% increase during the Christmas to New Year phase.   

“We expect airfares to the UK to rise in the coming weeks, especially for last-minute bookings and peak travel dates,” said Stephanie Neuer, Travel Counsellor. “For those looking to book last-minute, prices are high due to strong demand.  

“British Airways’ decision to suspend Abu Dhabi to Heathrow route for Summer 2025 will reduce capacity. While that’s still a while away, it’s likely to add pressure on fares as demand remains strong.”

The UK airline took the decision over supply chain challenges affecting Rolls-Royce Trent 1000 engines, which power its Boeing 787 fleet.

British expats in the UAE planning a last-minute trip to the UK for the winter break can still find fares in the ‘affordable zone’.

The lowest Economy class fare on this route is priced at Dh3,590 for travel between December 23 and January 2, 2025. While this is 28% higher than October’s average rate of Dh2,560, it is still 32% cheaper than prices during the same period last year (when they averaged Dh5,313 to Dh7,630).

On the other hand, UAE-bound fares from the UK are averaging Dh5,398 to Dh8,101 for this period, signaling robust inbound demand to spend the holiday break in the UAE.  

Stephanie said, “The UK-UAE travel sector has been performing well compared to last autumn and winter, with both leisure and business travel driving demand. UK-bound travel is shaping up to be very busy this winter thanks to the holiday season, and airfares reflect that.”

Abu Dhabi and London are among the most critical routes for business and tourism, and travel companies and airlines have observed consistent growth in demand since 2021-22, after the reopening after the Covid peak.

Emirates, Etihad Airways, Virgin Atlantic, and British Airways operate direct flights from the UAE to the UK.

“Emirates dominates the market (45%), but there is a noticeable shift toward other carriers when Emirates flights are full,” said Tarun Narula, Business Head – Air (Overseas) at TBO.com.

Air India is emerging as a competitor, adding new aircraft to its fleet and expanding its long-haul network. The Indian airline has a strong network and, under Tata’s leadership, has been working to improve in-flight service and deploy newer aircraft on these routes, said Narula.

Andrew Baturin, CMO at Tumodo, said BA’s decision on its summer schedule for Abu Dhabi to London will increase pressure on other airline operators. “Such adjustments are standard within the industry and are typically managed through capacity reallocation or the deployment of additional aircraft by different carriers,” said Baturin.