300,000 new pilots needed by 2034: industry forecast

The balance of power is shifting in aviation. As more people fly, new technologies like air taxis, and regulations introduced, the global aviation job market is undergoing a massive shift.

With airlines now fiercely competing on crew salary, lifestyle, and flexibility, both seasoned aviators and those just starting their careers are seeing opportunities unlike anything in recent memory.

Industry forecasts suggest that demand for pilots is set to climb sharply over the coming years.

According to the latest CAE Aviation Talent Forecast, around 300,000 new pilots will be needed worldwide over the next decade (until 2034) to support growth and replace retiring aviators.

CAE is a leader in training, simulation and operations for civil and defence aviation.

Breaking it down, CAE reckons that n commercial aviation, 267,000 new commercial aviation pilots will be needed globally over the next 10 years (until 2034) to meet the growing demand, especially in Asia-Pacific.

In business aviation, 33,000 new business aviation pilots will be needed primarily to replace retiring pilots and keep the sector on its growth trajectory.

Statista, for its part, projected a global pilot shortage of 50,000 (as ofr 2025) due to the post-pandemic rebound, retirements and fleet expansion. This supply-demand imbalance is expected to last until 2027 and beyond. 

Following are the global pilot demand projections, as per Statista and Boeing:

Potential shortage: 50,000 pilots as of 2025, largely due to a high volume of retirements and industry growth (Statista).

Long-term forecasts: Boeing’s industry outlook suggests a need for up to 660,000 new pilots worldwide between 2025 and 2044 (Boeing).

Regional demand (2019-2029): The Asia-Pacific region is projected to have the highest demand for new pilots globally during this period.

Business aviation: Between 2019 and 2038, the business aviation industry is expected to require approximately 8,000 new pilots in the Asia-Pacific region alone.

Active pilot population: The total active pilot population is forecast to grow from 382,000 in 2025 to 520,000 by 2034, requiring an average annual growth rate of 3.5%. 

Retirements: A significant portion of the current pilot workforce is reaching mandatory retirement age (65).

Industry growth: The commercial aircraft fleet is expected to increase from 25,900 in 2019 to 47,080 by 2041.

Training: Limited training capacity and the pandemic-related backlog of trainees have restricted the influx of new, qualified aviators.

eVTOL: By 2035 (as next-gen "air taxis" get certified), around 12,000 eVTOL aircraft could be in service globally, and up to 45,000 by 2040, as urban air mobility (UAM) networks proliferate, as per a 2025 analysis by Bain.

As 2026 kicks off, the market for pilots looks poised for takeoff.

Carriers across Europe are expanding their route networks and opening new operational bases, driving up the need for flight crews.

At the same time, established global airlines such as Delta, United, and Lufthansa are raising pay and accelerating hiring efforts to attract top talent.

Yet the race for pilots isn’t just about higher pay.

Improved rostering, more predictable schedules, and accelerated upgrade paths are reshaping how pilots evaluate career moves.

Airlines are increasingly offering enhanced lifestyle perks, creating an environment where pilots have more say over where and how they want to fly.

For anyone contemplating a career move or entry into the cockpit, this moment may be one of the most advantageous in years, according to CAE.

As the industry readies and mobilizes to train and equip the next generation of pilots, there has never been a better time to embark on a career in aviation.

This new class of aircraft is about to fly, unleashing a new age of flight, from 2026. A number of eVTOL (electric vertical take-off-and-landing aircraft or hybrid air taxi) makers —  like Joby, Archer, Eve and Beta Technologies — are working on their certifications.

The Five Eyes deal, which aligns certification for "air taxis" among five countries (UK, US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand) could lead the process for all countries.

Accounting giant KPMG estimates that up to 19,000 pilots may be required to meet UAM industry demand by 2030.

More bullish projections state that the eVTOL sector could require up to 60,000 pilots —  by 2028.

While such estimates may prove too high, the concensus is that tens of thousands of new pilots will be needed as eVTOL services scale through the 2030s.

Aviation Week’s relatively conservative fleet forecast shows about 1,000 eVTOL aircraft in service by 2030, and roughly 10,000 by 2040.