Just how will Obama's energy policy shape up when he takes office?

The US presidential election is finally over, and President-elect Barack Obama is waiting until the new year to become the first African-American to take the helm of the North American nation. But he's taking over a nation racked by financial meltdown and plummeting consumer confidence.

And what everyone wants to know, from the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries to the fabled Joe Sixpack, is how his energy policy is going to shape up.

There is little question that the ideas tossed out during the election, which focused heavily on investment in alternative energy, are unlikely to be rolled out as planned. The steadily cooling US economy just hasn't left the newly minted president enough money to spend on those types of programmes.

How he chooses to tackle the nation's economic problems are also going to impact energy markets, as economic woes spread around the world and continue to depress oil prices.

Sure, China's $586 billion (Dh2,150 billion) plan to boost their economy has helped energy prices rebound somewhat - even as Opec's production cut had negligible impact - but the poor condition of the US economy continues to drag other nations down with it.

In line with campaign promises, Obama's chief of staff is still promoting a yet-to-be-defined energy policy that reduces American dependence on foreign oil. But we are unlikely to see details of that plan until January.

The new administration is still hoping, however, to enact a middle-class tax cut with the help of a Democrat-controlled Congress that may boost the economy and encourage consumer spending. It is pretty tough to predict what is going to happen.

But Obama appears to be pulling in some heavyweights from the Clinton presidency to start building a plan to tackle the economy.

That should prove to be good news for Opec, which has more than a few members smarting from the steady drop in crude prices.

But I see no reason why anyone should expect oil prices to rise to the ridiculous levels they were at earlier this year. Sure, those prices looked like a boon for the budgets of Venezuela and Iran. But if we see that kind of price spike again, we're likely to be faced with a cooling worldwide economy again.

There is just no legitimate reason for oil prices to be that high at this point.

Hopefully, the more level heads in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf nations can put a stop to, or at least slow down, the Opec hotheads who are looking to keep cutting production in an attempt to balance their budgets.

Saudi budget

Since the Saudis were forward-thinking enough to balance their national budget based on oil staying above $50 per barrel - probably on the now-proven assumption that oil prices were inflated and likely to drop - it is hard to feel sorry for those Opec members who chose to take the short-term view.

But both sides are still likely watching and waiting for Obama to take office. For good or bad, the state of the US economy pulls the rest of the world along with it.

Although the choices Obama makes come January will hopefully generate some growth, Opec keeping the price of oil reasonable is an essential part of kickstarting a rebound. If either the economic stimulus programme fails, or if the price of black gold gains back enough of this year's price gains, there is a good chance that the ongoing slump may extend.

And if that happens, everyone is going to feel the pinch.

- The writer is a freelance journalist based in Alaska, US.