Trump vs Musk: How their feud is driving Nasa into its worst crisis in years

Dubai: America’s space programme, once a symbol of unshakeable ambition and global leadership, is now teetering on the edge of a crisis.

A public and escalating feud between US President Donald Trump and billionaire tech magnate Elon Musk has exposed just how vulnerable Nasa has become — reliant on a single private company for its most critical missions.

SpaceX, Musk’s aerospace venture, is currently the only American firm capable of ferrying astronauts and supplies to the International Space Station (ISS).

It is also Nasa’s chosen partner for future Moon landings and even the first human missions to Mars.

But in a matter of days, this partnership has been thrown into chaos. What began as a policy disagreement over a controversial tax bill spiraled into a war of words that culminated in Musk threatening to decommission SpaceX’s Dragon spacecraft — the very capsule that Nasa depends on.

Although Musk later walked back that threat, the episode sent shockwaves through government agencies, space contractors, and international partners, revealing a gaping hole in America’s space strategy: there is no backup plan.

The timing couldn’t be worse. Nasa is already grappling with budget cuts that threaten to cancel or stall over 40 science missions. Its alternative to SpaceX — the Boeing Starliner — remains unreliable and grounded, and the White House has signalled a shift away from broad scientific exploration to a narrower focus on beating China to the Moon and planting a flag on Mars.

Here’s why there is a crisis at Nasa, who the players are, and what the possible alternatives — if any — might be.

This clash comes at a time when Nasa has grown deeply dependent on SpaceX for critical aspects of its operations, including:

• Transporting astronauts to and from the International Space Station (ISS)

• Delivering cargo and supplies

• Launching sensitive Pentagon and intelligence satellites

• Supporting future lunar and Mars missions

Musk threatened to decommission the Dragon spacecraft, Nasa’s only active means of astronaut transport. Although he later walked back that statement, the mere threat has alarmed officials in Nasa and the Pentagon, exposing the government’s vulnerability due to over-reliance on a single private contractor.

At the same time, Trump has threatened to terminate federal contracts and subsidies for Musk’s companies, including SpaceX and Starlink, after Musk criticised a tax bill that could affect Tesla. The combination of budget threats, contract withdrawals, and impulsive public statements has created deep uncertainty within the US space programme.

SpaceX has become the backbone of Nasa’s human spaceflight and satellite deployment programmes:

• Dragon capsules ferry astronauts and cargo to and from the ISS.

• Falcon 9 rockets are Nasa’s go-to launch vehicles for crewed and uncrewed missions.

• Starship, currently under development, is the vehicle chosen for upcoming Moon landings and Mars missions.

• Classified national security launches for the Pentagon and intelligence agencies are routinely handled by SpaceX.

Nasa’s dependence on SpaceX is so profound that any disruption to their partnership threatens to delay or even derail major US space goals.

The conflict began when Elon Musk publicly criticised a Congressional tax bill, claiming it would drastically increase the national debt. Trump responded by suggesting Musk’s real concern was over reduced tax credits for electric vehicles — a core part of Tesla’s business.

The spat escalated when Trump threatened to cancel government contracts with Musk’s companies. In retaliation, Musk announced (via X) that SpaceX would start decommissioning the Dragon spacecraft — the only active US capsule for ISS crew transport.

Although Musk soon reversed his threat, the exchange was enough to set off alarms inside Nasa and the Pentagon.

• No human access to the ISS: Without Dragon, Nasa has no certified US spacecraft to send astronauts to the ISS. Boeing’s Starliner is not yet approved for human missions after its failed 2024 flight.

• Jeopardised private missions: Axiom-4, a private mission carrying international astronauts including India’s Shubhanshu Shukla, is set to launch aboard a SpaceX rocket. Future missions like this may be postponed or canceled.

• Threat to Artemis Moon missions: Nasa selected SpaceX’s Starship as the lander for its Artemis programme to return humans to the Moon. Tensions with SpaceX could delay these missions.

• National security setbacks: The Pentagon relies on SpaceX for launching military and intelligence satellites. Musk’s unpredictability now poses a potential national security risk.

• Loss of long-term stability: Space missions require decades of planning, consistent funding, and collaboration between government and private industry. The current instability is chilling that environment.

There are some alternatives, but most are not ready or lack the full capabilities of SpaceX:

o Status: grounded

o Problems: Test flight in 2024 failed; crew stuck on ISS for over 9 months.

o Certification: Still pending for regular human transport.

o Status: Developing rockets like New Glenn and Blue Moon landers.

o Challenges: Years behind in crewed spaceflight capability. No certified ISS transport.

o Status: Final testing phase for cargo delivery.

o Capability: Initially cargo-only; human-rated version still in development.

o Comment: CEO said they’re ready to step in to support ISS missions.

o Status: Contacted by Nasa/Pentagon for future capability.

o Limitation: Smaller payloads, limited flight history for human or deep-space missions.

o Status: Reliable backup.

o Limitation: Capacity for only 3 people. Costly and politically complicated.

Both agencies have moved swiftly:

• Nasa has reached out to other commercial players like Sierra Space, Rocket Lab, and Blue Origin to diversify its launch options.

• The Pentagon has begun assessing alternative providers for national security payloads.

• Internally, Nasa has revived discussions about the risk of depending too heavily on a single private contractor.

A Nasa official described watching the Musk-Trump drama unfold as “entertaining — until Musk threatened to decommission Dragon. Then it became terrifying.”

Yes. The White House’s 2025 budget request includes deep cuts to Nasa’s science missions — nearly a 50 per cent reduction — impacting over 40 missions. Only the Moon and Mars human programmes are spared, with Mars efforts seeing a $100 million boost.

According to experts:

• These cuts could represent “the biggest crisis ever to face the US space programme.”

• Nasa says the changes “align” with the agency’s long-term focus on the Moon and Mars.

• But critics say the administration is gutting Nasa’s broader scientific and exploratory mission in favour of politically symbolic goals like “planting a flag on Mars.”

• Trust erosion: Nasa and its partners require stability and long-term coordination. Political volatility, impulsive threats, and budget cuts erode international and commercial trust.

• Delays to human exploration goals: If Nasa must wait for alternative spacecraft to become viable, timelines for Moon and Mars missions could slip by years.

• Global perception: The US risks losing its leadership in space to rivals like China, especially if political infighting stalls progress.

• Private sector caution: Entrepreneurs may be discouraged from investing in space ventures if contracts are subject to sudden cancellation.

• The immediate concern is whether the upcoming Axiom-4 mission can proceed smoothly.

• Congress will debate the Nasa budget in the coming weeks.

• Much hinges on whether Musk and Trump continue their feud, and whether Nasa can fast-track alternatives.

As one space policy expert put it: “Right now, Nasa is flying blind. And it’s not the stars that are the problem — it’s politics.”