24.6 million barrels of oil per day: Mid-East oil finds a way around war — but fuel supplies still lag
Middle East crude flows recover but shipping challenges persist
The US-Israel war with Iran has prompted producers to rely on alternative pipelines, offshore transfers and tanker shuttles to keep oil moving.
The bump in oil shipments highlights how Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have adapted to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
The result: More oil is leaving the Middle East now than before the war with Iran began, despite Tehran’s efforts to disrupt shipping through the strait.
Exports have climbed to more than 24 million barrels a day, up from 23.3 million before the war, as per energy intelligence firm Kpler.
By diverting more crude through pipelines to export terminals outside the strait, Saudi Arabia and teh UAE have helped sustain regional oil flows despite heightened security risks.
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The higher export volume, however, does not mean the disruption has been cost-free, as per the International Energy Agency (IEA).
The cost is steep: Iranian attacks on shipping and the threat of further escalation have increased freight rates, war-risk insurance premiums and other costs associated with moving oil through the region.
“The volume recovered. The route did not,” Kpler said, explaining that 40% of the region’s crude bypassed Hormuz in September, compared with 17% before the war.
Key figures: How Gulf oil exports recovered
24.6 million barrels of oil per day (bopd): Average Middle East oil exports excluding Iran in the week to Oct. 18, according to data compiled by energy intelligence firm Kpler.
23.3 million barrels per day: The comparable pre-war average.
Exports return to pre-war levels: At least 16.5 mbd of crude left the region excluding Iran between September 1 and 28.
40%: Share of regional crude exports now bypassing Hormuz, compared with 17% before the war, according to Kpler's September analysis.
Four in 10 barrels bypass Hormuz: The share of crude exports avoiding the strait increased from 17% before the war to 40% in September.
Alternative routes carry millions of barrels: Saudi and UAE pipelines have helped redirect supplies toward Red Sea and Gulf of Oman export terminals.
Ship-to-ship transfers surge: More than 70% of crude crossing Hormuz in August changed tankers offshore near Fujairah or Sohar.
Saudi export routes proved adaptable: Saudi shipments shifted between Gulf and Red Sea terminals as disruptions affected loading operations.
Higher shipping costs: Tanker charter rates and war-risk insurance premiums have surged, making alternative routes expensive and vulnerable to further attacks, as per the Financial Times.
Iran remains a major exception: The recovery excludes Iranian exports, which remain constrained by the US blockade, according to the report.
How exporters rebuilt their routes
Kpler said the region has since “rebuilt” its export system through three main routes: direct passage through Hormuz, loading at Gulf of Oman ports and shipments through the Red Sea.
Saudi Arabia increased shipments through its 1,201-km East-West Pipeline, called “Petroline” across Saudi Arabia, from Abqaiq-Gawa fields in the Eastern Province the Gulf to Yanbu on the Red Sea.
The United Arab Emirates ramped up its 406-km Habshan–Fujairah oil pipeline, outside Hormuz.
Producers without comparable bypass routes remained dependent on the strait, Kpler noted.
3 routes sustain Gulf oil exports
Three major routes now sustain Gulf oil exports. September shipments were divided among three main export channels:
60% — Strait of Hormuz: About 9.9 mbd physically crossed the strait, with shuttle tankers playing a major role.
23% — Gulf of Oman: Oil was loaded outside the strait, primarily at Fujairah in the UAE.
17% — Red Sea: Shipments moved through Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea export network.
Before the war, about 83% of crude exports from the region crossed Hormuz. The shift toward alternative routes has reduced dependence on the narrow waterway, although a majority of exports still rely on it.
A 'shuttle system' emerges
This involves tankers that load inside the Gulf, cross Hormuz with AIS off and transfer cargoes to other vessels near Fujairah or Sohar for onward delivery.
More than 70% of crude crossing the strait in August changed tankers offshore, according to Kpler.
Tracking that system is difficult.
Some vessels switch off their identification signals, requiring analysts to combine satellite imagery, vessel movements, loading information and destination checks. Recent estimates can consequently be revised as additional cargo movements are confirmed.
Does the “above 90%” claim hold?
The percentage depends on the period, geographic coverage and treatment of Iranian exports. Based on Kpler’s September analysis, non-Iranian oil exports are back at their prewar average.
Including Iran, regional exports reached 91% of the earlier level.
Exceeding prewar level
For a later period, The Wall Street Journal and Kpler reported that regional crude shipments exceeded 24 million barrels a day in the week through Oct. 18, against a prewar comparison of 23.3 million.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) offered a more cautious September assessment: Gulf crude exports reached 13.9 million barrels a day, more than 75% of prewar levels.
The differing estimates underscore the need to identify the route and averaging window whenever reporting a recovery percentage, as per the IEA.
Tanker transfers reshare the shipping network
A growing share of crude shipments now involves transferring cargo between vessels offshore rather than transporting oil directly from loading terminals to final destinations.
In August, more than 70% of crude that crossed Hormuz changed tankers in offshore waters near Fujairah or Sohar, according to Kpler.
Very large crude carriers (VLCCs) have become central to the system, making shuttle voyages approximately every 16 days to move crude between locations and larger vessels.
The practice complicates conventional monitoring: some tankers switch off their automatic identification system (AIS) transponders, while cargo transfers and changes in vessel draught can make shipments harder to trace.
