The $5,000 question

Both analysts say $5,000 is possible, but the route matters.

Hasn expects technical behaviour around $4,500 to be decisive, and he laid out two paths. “Continued rejection of the $4,500 per ounce level, which could push gold into a sideways range lasting from several weeks to several months,” he said, adding that consolidation phases are normal for gold. He cited a recent example. “For example, when gold initially rejected the $3,500 level earlier this year, it took the yellow metal 19 weeks to break above that high and resume its upward trend,” he said.

He added that a cleaner break can change the pace. “Alternatively, sustained consolidation above the psychological $4,500 level could pave the way toward $5,000 per ounce, which may take only a few weeks to reach if upside momentum persists. However, the faster gold extends higher, the greater the likelihood of a sharp and deep correction, again, nothing new for this market,” he said.

Azar also sees a path, with conditions. “A sustained environment of lower real rates and repeated geopolitical shocks could continue to strengthen gold’s appeal,” he said. “In parallel, ongoing central-bank accumulation and steady ETF inflows could lead gold to test new levels.”

Record year for silver

Gold has dominated the headlines, but both analysts expect silver to remain in play in 2026.

Hasn’s argument is rooted in both geopolitics and supply. “I believe momentum across precious metals could continue through the remainder of next year, whether for silver, gold, or even platinum,” he said. “In addition to the geopolitical factors mentioned above, silver is likely to face supply constraints from China in the coming year.”

He also pointed to silver’s industrial demand, which can amplify moves when speculative interest rises. “It is also worth remembering that silver has far broader industrial applications than gold, which is more heavily supported by speculative flows,” he said, adding that the $100 per ounce level could come into view if momentum accelerates.

Azar’s view is similar but framed through risk appetite. “Silver’s outlook remains positive, supported by many of the same macro forces that benefit gold, particularly expectations of easier monetary policy that favour non-yielding assets,” he said. He added that silver’s volatility makes it more suitable for investors who can tolerate larger swings.

The risks people should not ignore

The strongest caution in the outlook is about volatility and positioning.

“Although gold is often described as a safe haven, trading gold or gold-related instruments involves significant risks, and the metal has increasingly become a speculative asset rather than a pure investment alternative,” Hasn said. “Investors should also be mindful that gold’s gains will not last indefinitely, as the market may face a sharp and sudden correction or enter a prolonged sideways phase.”

He also warned against poor risk control at elevated prices. “I would caution against excessive and poorly considered positioning in gold or any asset that has experienced a rapid and extended trend,” he said. He pointed to the Commitments of Traders data on the Chicago exchange. “Net long positioning among non-commercial traders is nearly double that of commercial participants. As a result, a downside shock or a broader market margin-call event could trigger an extremely sharp sell-off,” he said.

Azar made a similar point, linking pullbacks to ordinary catalysts that can hit hard after a strong year. “Due to the strong performance recorded by gold, the market could be exposed to corrections,” he said. “Gold can experience sharp pullbacks triggered by profit-taking, temporary dollar strength, or short-term shifts in bond yields.”

What 2026 looks like from here

Gold goes into 2026 priced at a level that assumes uncertainty stays high. The World Gold Council’s scenario work suggests the base case is a range-bound year, but its own analysis also shows why surprises remain plausible. The list of tail risks has grown, not shrunk, and the market is still sensitive to shifts in rates, the dollar, and geopolitics.

- With inputs from Bloomberg.

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