Three scenarios define the 2026 outlook

While the current gold price broadly reflects macroeconomic consensus, suggesting stable growth, minor rate cuts, and a rangebound performance, the history of the past year shows the macroeconomy rarely follows predictable paths. Analysts have mapped out three distinct scenarios for 2026, each carrying a radically different implication for gold’s price.

1. The shallow slip: Moderate gains

This scenario involves a moderate slowdown in the US economy, prompted by concerns that momentum is fading, especially if high margins contract or if a potential reset in AI expectations drags on the equity market. A softening US labour market would weaken consumer activity, prompting the Federal Reserve to cut rates beyond current expectations.

Impact on gold: This combination of lower interest rates, a weaker dollar, both of which remain cyclically high, and heightened risk aversion would be supportive. Analysts project that under this environment, gold could rise 5% to 15% in 2026. This would represent a noteworthy follow-up to 2025’s performance, potentially aided by continued strategic central bank buying and new investment entrants from markets like China and India.

2. The doom loop: Strong upside

This is the most bullish scenario, contingent on the global economy moving into a deeper and more synchronised slowdown driven by escalating geopolitical and geoeconomic risk. Unresolved conflicts or new flashpoints could erode confidence, causing businesses to scale back investment and households to pull back spending, creating a self-reinforcing "doom loop."

Impact on gold: A pronounced flight-to-safety, coupled with sharply falling yields and a pronounced geopolitical stress premium, would create exceptionally strong tailwinds. Under this scenario, gold could surge 15% to 30% in 2026. Investment demand, particularly via gold ETFs, would be a key driver, offsetting weakness in other areas like jewellery. Despite the major inflows to date, global gold ETF holdings remain less than half of what was seen in previous bull cycles, leaving ample room for growth.

3. Reflation return: Bearish pullback

On the bearish side, a scenario where the policies set by the Trump administration succeed in generating stronger-than-expected growth linked to fiscal induced support could take hold. If this reflation pushes activity higher and lifts global growth, rising inflation pressures could force the Fed to hold or even hike rates in 2026.

Impact on gold: This environment, characterised by rising long-term yields, a strengthening US dollar, and a broad risk-on rotation, increases the opportunity cost of holding gold. It would prompt a notable withdrawal of investor interest, potentially resulting in a gold price correction of between 5% and 20%. Sustained outflows from gold ETFs would be expected, reinforcing this as the most challenging scenario for the metal.

Central banks and recycling

Beyond these macroeconomic scenarios, two factors remain significant wildcards that could materially influence the market: central bank demand and recycling supply.

Official sector purchases have been robust, and structural support remains strong, especially since gold reserves from emerging market countries, the main source of demand, remain well below those held by developed nations. If geopolitical tensions accelerate, EM purchases could surge. Conversely, a significant pullback in central bank buying to pre-Covid levels could create headwinds.

Recycling flows also present a swing factor. Recycling has been muted, partially due to a rise in the use of gold as collateral for loans, notably in India, where consumers have pledged over 200 tonnes of gold jewellery through the formal sector this year alone. If recycling remains subdued, it supports the price. However, a marked economic slowdown in India could trigger forced liquidations of this collateral, boosting secondary supply and putting pressure on prices.

Ultimately, gold’s capacity to provide diversification and downside protection remains its most relevant attribute in an unpredictable world.

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