What will happen to Earth if asteroid 2024 YR4 slams into the Moon?

Brace yourselves.

Asteroid 2024 YR4 — a rock also dubbed as a “city killer” — might just deliver our Moon a cosmic punch.

Nasa has confirmed a rising chance this "city killer" asteroid or space rock may strike the Moon.

What adds to the tension: the unprecedented precision of recent observations, especially from space-based telescopes. 

Nasa has now calculated the smash-up date: December 22, 2032.

This colossal space rock roughly the size of a 15-storey building — about 200 feet wide — threatens a rare and dramatic encounter with our lunar companion.

In late 2024, it was first spotted blinking on Nasa’s radar as a potentially catastrophic Earth impactor set for December 22, 2032.

This asteroid has since been ruled out as a direct threat to our planet – a huge sigh of relief for us Earthlings.

Yet, there’s an unsettling possibility of an impact with the Moon.

It has since surged to a 4.3% probability, according to the latest datasets refined by the James Webb Space Telescope and ground observatories, as per Nasa. 

Experts warn, however, that even a miss from Earth does not mean zero consequences. 

If 2024 YR4 smacks the lunar surface, astronomers predict it could unleash an epic explosion powerful enough to send a shower of “bullet-like” meteor debris flying toward Earth. 

The collision could also carve out an impact crater roughly one kilometer wide, reshaping the lunar surface in a single cataclysmic moment. 

Molly Wasser, in an update on the Nasa Planetary Defence team, said that asteroid 2024 YR4 is currently too distant to detect with telescopes from Earth.

But NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope has collected one more observation of the asteroid before it escaped from view in its orbit around the Sun.  

This has enabled Nasa’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies to refine 2024 YR4’s orbit using Webb data, improving trajectory predictions by nearly 20%.

This raised the chance of a lunar impact on December 22, 2032, from 3.8% to 4.3%.

Imagine a dazzling meteor shower lighting up the skies, but also a potential headache for our precious satellites zooming overhead. 

Astronomers warn that these space invaders could threaten the gadgets that handle our GPS, broadband internet, and weather forecasts — basically our modern lifelines.

Scientists will keep their telescopes glued, hoping to nail down the exact odds by 2028 when the asteroid swings back near our planet. 

Until then, 2024 YR4 is the rock star of the solar system’s suspense thriller — ready to show that even our Moon isn’t completely safe from space drama.

So, get your telescopes ready for a potential once-in-a-decade lunar spectacle — and fingers crossed, no satellite casualties in this celestial showdown.

No. Nasa experts say this strike would not alter the Moon’s orbit or endanger life on Earth directly. 

However, the aftermath could be spectacular and consequential — hurling a rain of lunar debris towards our planet’s atmosphere. 

While most fragments would burn up harmlessly on entry, some pose risks to orbiting satellites, threatening the critical infrastructure that underpins global communication and weather forecasting.

Using the near-infrared camera aboard the James Webb Telescope, astronomers led by Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory have refined the asteroid’s predicted trajectory by nearly 20%.

This is how the impact odds was nudged upward while shoring up confidence in this new hazardous scenario. 

The European Space Agency (ESA) also highlights the value of next-generation infrared observatories like NEOMIR, which would have detected 2024 YR4 a full month earlier, providing essential lead time for monitoring and planetary defense preparedness.

The suspense is heightened by the relative rarity of such lunar impact events. 

While space is vast, and collisions remain statistically infrequent, a 4% chance is "very high" in astronomical terms, say Nasa experts. 

This scenario casts the Moon not merely as a silent celestial body, but as an active participant in our solar system’s ongoing drama.

For humanity, this event might represent the most visible asteroid strike in decades — possibly observable even with amateur telescopes as an extraordinarily bright flash on the Moon’s surface. 

Beyond the spectacle lies a test of scientific vigilance and international planetary defence coordination.

Nasa continues to update the public as new observations come in, underscoring the dynamic nature of asteroid tracking and the vital importance of space situational awareness. 

The world watches, knowing that while the Earth is spared, its closest neighbour in space may soon bear the scars of an extraterrestrial hit observable within our lifetime.

This possible celestial incident is a reminder: Our place in the cosmos is an unpredictable one.