Why are Arabian Peninsula quakes milder — and can AI actually predict them now?

Earthquakes in the Arabia tend to be relatively milder compared to other tectonically active regions. 

Geologists explain this is due to a number of factors.

The Arabian Peninsula sits on the Arabian Plate, considered a “stable craton” — a large, ancient, and rigid part of the Earth’s outer shell (lithosphere).

This tectonic plate covers much of the Arabian Peninsula, including Saudi Arabia, Yemen, the UAE, Oman, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and parts of Iraq and Jordan.

Researchers Sherif M. Ali (National Research Institute of Astronomy and Geophysics, Cairo) and Kamal Abdelrahman (King Saud University, Riyadh), who published their work in the Frontiers of Earth Sciences, explained that this stability means the plate itself experiences "low internal stress and strain". 

This, they said, helps reduce the frequency and intensity of powerful earthquakes.

While there are recorded seismic activities in the region, most of them occur along the plate boundaries – such as the Zagros Belt (Fold and Thrust) to the northeast, and the Red Sea Rift to the west, where tectonic plates are known to be colliding or pulling apart.

These boundary zones are the primary sources of earthquakes, geologists say.

The researchers noted that while seismic hazard exists, it is “moderate” compared to more active collision zones.

To study earthquakes in this region, scientists looked at almost 3,000 recorded seismic events from 1941 to 2019. 

These earthquakes had magnitudes ranging from 1.0 to 6.2 and occurred at depths up to 50 km, using data from the International Seismological Centre (ISC), including information like the time and location of each quake.

Using this data, experts analysed how often earthquakes happen and their sizes. They found different stress levels in each terrane, which explains why some areas have larger quakes than others.

In geology, a terrane is a fault-bounded fragment of the Earth's crust that has a distinct geologic history different from the surrounding rocks.

These fragments, also called tectonostratigraphic terranes, are formed on one tectonic plate and are later carried by plate tectonics to become "accreted" or attached to another continental plate.

The zone where they collide is typically a fault, and they are responsible for building up continents.

The researchers noted that while seismic hazard exists in this plate, it is “moderate” compared to more active collision zones.

To study earthquakes in this region, scientists looked at almost 3,000 recorded seismic events from 1941 to 2019. 

These earthquakes had magnitudes ranging from 1.0 to 6.2 and occurred at depths up to 50 km, the researchers stated citing data from the International Seismological Centre and included information like the time and location of each quake.

Using this data, experts analysed how often earthquakes happen and their magnitudes. 

They found different stress levels in each terrane, which explains the varying magnitudes depending on area. 

But since much of the Arabian Peninsula is situated away from these active fault lines, the interior regions experience fewer – and generally lower-magnitude quakes.

Moreover, the Arabian Shield and surrounding areas have low “heat flow” and thick, stable crustal rocks, the researchers noted.

This further contributes to the low “seismicity” and generally milder earthquake occurrences. 

The “Arabian platform”, east of the Arabian plate, is made of sedimentary rocks that overlay the Arabian Shield and dip towards the Arabian Gulf. 

The accumulated sediments in this platform represent the southeastern part of the vast “Middle East basin” – which extends eastward into Iran, westward into the eastern Mediterranean and northward into Jordan/Iraq/Syria.

Within this plate, the north-eastward movement does still cause various tectonic features and seismic zones.

Within the Arabian peninsula, shallow-depth earthquakes dominate, which can sometimes be felt – but often do not result in severe damage.

The combination of the Arabian Peninsula’s position within a stable tectonic plate, its distance from the most active fault zones, and the geological properties of the crust contribute to the relatively mild nature of earthquakes experienced in the area, compared to more seismically volatile regions like the “Pacific Ring of Fire”.

This understanding explains why tremors, like those occasionally felt in the Musandam area or the UAE, tend to be moderate and of limited impact, despite ongoing tectonic activity along nearby plate boundaries.

Researchers said that the largest expected earthquake magnitude varies by terrane, with Midyan possibly seeing up to magnitude 6.0, Tabuk-Neom up to 5.4, Hijaz around 4.7, Jeddah about 4.8, and Asir up to a strong 7.7. 

The average time between these largest quakes ranges from about 6 to 200 years, depending on the terrane.

Most big earthquakes are linked to the Najd fault system, a major tectonic feature of the Arabian Shield. 

“This fault system is the most likely place for significant quakes to occur in the region. Large earthquakes are less frequent but possible, especially near plate boundaries,” they concluded.

Scientists have developed an advanced artificial intelligence (AI) model to forecast earthquakes in the Arabian Peninsula more accurately.

Published in the journal Remote Sensing, the study focuses on the Arabian Plate, a region not considered an earthquake hotspot itself but is surrounded by active tectonic zones.

The researchers analysed almost 22 years of earthquake data from the US Geological Survey, satellite images from Landsat-8, and elevation data.

Their AI combines two powerful tools — Inception v3-ensemble extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) and shapely additive explanations (SHAP) — to both predict seismic events and explain the influence of different geological factors.

This hybrid model reached an impressive 87.9% accuracy, outperforming previous methods.

It reportedly "excels" at learning complex patterns from past earthquake occurrences and predicting the likelihood of future quakes within specific seismic zones, a process called spatial probability assessment (SPA).

The AI model also considers factors like ground shaking gaps and tectonic contacts, improving prediction reliability.

While the Arabian Peninsula mostly experiences small-to-moderate earthquakes, this new AI tool can help identify areas with higher risks.