'Swing state' of Nineveh may be moving in favour of constitution

In the upcoming constitutional referendum, Nineveh province has been considered the Ohio of Iraq, the swing state where success of the founding document hangs in the balance.

But as some Sunni Arab leaders in Baghdad announced a last-minute endorsement of the constitution this week, local politicians from the Iraqi Islamic Party scrapped their ``no'' posters and began organising ``yes'' rallies on the streets of the provincial capital.

While they have yet to hold a copy of the constitution in their hands, many voters in Nineveh say they have been swayed by the political turnaround, making it seem increasingly unlikely that the constitution will be rejected, even in this predominately Sunni Arab province.

The constitution requires the approval of a majority of Iraqis in today's referendum, but it can be defeated if at least two-thirds of the voters in three of Iraq's 18 provinces vote no.

Sunnis have led the opposition to the constitution, and voters in the provinces of Anbar and Salahadin are most likely to reject it, making Nineveh's vote crucial.

On Wednesday, Iraqi leaders amended the constitution to make it more palatable to Sunnis, and the Iraqi Islamic Party endorsed it. While some of the drama of today's vote is gone, tension remains.

A series of high-profile suicide attacks has claimed the lives of at least 60 people this week.

The province has become a high-stakes battleground between US-led forces intent on securing high voter participation and insurgents conducting a campaign of violence against the referendum.

About 20,000 Iraqi and US troops are trying to maintain control of the province, but it is proving difficult.

Intimidation, assassinations and a history of voting fraud have polluted the political life in Mosul.

Election workers, high-level politicians and journalists have been slain.

Last week, the Kurdish-dominated provincial government voted to oust the Sunni Arab police chief, accusing him of heavy-handed tactics and corruption.

Officials in Baghdad and Washington fear that threats and ballot-box stuffing might jeopardise the credibility of the vote in Iraq's third-largest city.

In nine months, three different people have been brought from Baghdad to Mosul to oversee the election commission here.

"If they can't get along here,'' said Major Jeff Houston of the 401st Civil Affairs Battalion, "it creates serious problems for the rest of the country."

About 1.8 million of Nineveh's 2.5 million inhabitants live in Mosul. Sunni Arabs dominate on the west bank of the Tigris River and Kurds on the east.

In addition, minorities such as Shabaks, Assyrians and Christians contribute to the mosaic of the city.

"Some Kurdish leaders want to include Mosul in the northern region and the Arabs are refusing," said Arif Saleem, head of the Development and Dialogue Association, an independent political research organisation.

But Kosha Goran, a Kurd who is the deputy governor, said that Kurds in the city have received death threats and that thousands have already fled north.

The complexity of the city's ethnic and sectarian allegiances still makes the vote hard to call here.

"It is not a foregone conclusion," said the US official, adding that "if the Sunni Arabs are less antagonistic as a result of the developments in Baghdad, it makes it all the less likely that the constitution will fail."

A staff member at the Development and Dialogue Association predicted that the Iraqi Islamic Party endorsement of the constitution would have a substantial effect on the vote of Sunni Arabs in the city.