Over 20,000 civilian deaths in 2007 despite troop surge

Dubai: Any temptation to celebrate the recorded decline in Iraqi civilian deaths in 2007 must be tempered by the fact that the year was still the second most violent year since the invasion (exceeded only by 2006), according to figures by Iraq Body Count.

Between 22,586-24,159 civilian deaths were recorded in 2007 by the UK-based IBC. At the high end of the estimate that translates into more than 66 deaths daily. Those who trumpet the limited success of the troop surge, fully operational in June, must acknowledge this is hardly reason to celebrate.

"The figures show beyond any doubt that civil security in Iraq remains in a parlous state. For some 24,000 Iraqi civilians, and their families and friends, 2007 was a year of devastating and irreparable tragedy," IBC co-founder and spokesperson John Sloboda told Gulf News.

The latest figures show that as of January 1, 2008, the IBC total for violent civilian deaths to the end of 2007 ranges from 81,174-88,585, including a preliminary figure of 902 for December 2007 since the invasion.

Other estimates place the death toll much higher. A study by the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health in Baltimore, Maryland, and published in the British medical magazine The Lancet put civilian deaths at more than 650,000 since the invasion in March 2003. The figure was based on randomly selecting nearly 2,000 households from across Iraq and then extrapolating the figures. The IBC figures are compiled by extensive monitoring of media and official reports. All the deaths have been officially reported.

The range is due to the manner of deaths. Huge explosions, for instance, make it difficult to gauge the exact number of fatalities.

However, the IBC figures reveal a marked decline, with two exceptions - May and July - in the 2007 civilian death toll in Baghdad, which has fallen steadily month on month. By December 2007 this had fallen to around 246, about one-seventh of the starting January total of 1,683.

In contrast, the monthly toll outside Baghdad increased substantially between January (1,112) and August (1,604), before a steep drop to around 700 per month and below for September through December. Civilian death rates stayed consistently high (at around 2,500 per month) for the first eight months, changing fairly suddenly to around 1,000 per month over the last four months to the end of 2007.

Since March 2007, for the first time, every month has seen more civilian deaths outside Baghdad than inside it.