Mousavi's supporters could challenge regime

Tehran: How far can Mir Hussain Mousavi go in challenging Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's officially-declared victory, and what kind of Iran will emerge in the coming days? What evidence is there of polling fraud?

The evidence so far is circumstantial but persuasive. The authorities behaved in an unusual way, shortcutting the normal three-day verification and declaration process, announcing an Ahmadinejad victory only two hours after polls closed.

The Mousavi camp says the interior ministry told him earlier in the evening that he had won convincingly.

What can be done about it?

Not a lot, officially. Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, has issued a statement congratulating Ahmadinejad, apparently closing the door to an appeal or further official investigation.

Other establishment figures, like Ali Larijani, the parliamentary speaker, have also closed ranks. However, Mousavi has so far shown no signs of publicly conceding and has called on the Guardian Council, the top legislative body in the Islamic republic, to annul the result.

Can Khamenei be challenged?

Under Iran's unique form of government, known as velayat-e-faqih, rule of the Islamic jurist, the supreme leader has far-reaching powers over the machinery of state. In theory, he can be dismissed by the Assembly of Experts, an elected body of Islamic scholars, currently chaired by Hashemi Rafsanjani, a former president, bitter enemy of Ahmadinejad, and a pivotal figure.

However, the assembly has never before questioned the authority of the supreme leader, Ruhollah Khomeini, who created the system, or since 1989, Ali Khamenei.

What are the authorities afraid of?

The election was initially seen as posing little threat to Khamenei and the top clerics.

The Guardian Council, a conservative body of clerics, approved only four candidates out of more than 470 who registered.

Mousavi had the reputation of an uncharismatic technocrat before the vote, but he became the focus of a pent-up desire for change.

The raucousness of the Mousavi supporters and the profusion of green, his campaign colour, across the country, appear to have made the regime nervous about the possibility of an upheaval like the "colour revolutions" in eastern Europe.

Hardliners saw the hand of Washington and the West behind such movements.

What happens next?

The next few days will reveal how far Mousavi supporters are willing to go to challenge the regime. They will also show how far the authorities are willing to go in suppressing dissent. Either way, the events of the past few days have the makings of a turning point.