Israel is considering a proposed cease-fire with Lebanon that would keep Hezbollah fighters away from the countries' battered frontier, and is planning to host White House mediators in what appears to be a push to make progress before the US presidential election next week.
Six weeks after launching a campaign of sabotage, air barrages and ground incursions against Hezbollah, Israel says it has driven back and cut down the Iranian-backed faction, whose cross-border rocket and drone launches persist but at a reduced scope.
Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met top aides late on Tuesday to discuss a fresh proposal, his spokesperson said. On Thursday, he will host US President Joe Biden's most senior Middle East envoys, Brett McGurk and Amos Hochstein, as part of the talks, another Israeli official said.
The plan, if agreed, would lead to a 60-day suspension of hostilities to test implementation of an enforcement mechanism to ensure Hezbollah doesn't receive any new arms from Iran and withdraws north of Lebanon's Litani River, in line with the United Nations Security Council's longstanding Resolution 1701, according to a separate person familiar with the negotiations.
Israeli troops, meanwhile, would move south and maintain positions along the border, keeping the ability to strike if they see Hezbollah infractions that go unaddressed, this person added.
According to Israeli public broadcaster Kan, which said it obtained a copy of the draft proposal, the Lebanese army would have a role in reining in Hezbollah - including seizing its weapons and dismantling its infrastructure.
Yet Hezbollah retains clout in Lebanon - which, for its part, has no diplomatic relations with Israel. Such obstacles could prove thorny, as myriad failed attempts to secure a parallel cease-fire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza have demonstrated.
In a televised speech on Wednesday, Hezbollah's new leader, Naim Qasem, struck a note of defiance, saying Israel hasn't agreed to a deal that's acceptable to discuss and the group is ready fight on for months or even longer.
Hezbollah has repeatedly said any cease-fire should be linked to one in Gaza, and Qasem reiterated in his speech that the goal is "to protect Lebanon, support Palestinians."
Beirut would likely balk, meanwhile, at Israel's demand to retain the right to strike Hezbollah even after a truce. The draft cited by Kan included a stipulation that neither country would be precluded "from exercising their inherent right to self-defense" "- a rubric that may be meant to accommodate the Israeli condition.
Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati hasn't been informed of anything significant by the US regarding the latest plan, according to a person familiar with his thinking. Mikati doubts there will be progress on a cease-fire before Tuesday's US election, the person said.
In the meantime, fighting continues, and Israel's military gave an evacuation order for the eastern Lebanese city of Baalbek and some surrounding areas. Hours later, an airstrike on what Israel described as a local Hezbollah fuel depot set off a massive blast. At least 60 people were killed in Israeli attacks on similar parts of Lebanon earlier this week, the health ministry said.
Hezbollah started firing missiles and drones at Israel a day after the war with Hamas erupted last October, and has continued its salvos despite suffering heavy losses in the past six weeks. On Wednesday, the Israeli military sounded sirens in Haifa and parts of the Galilee region and said 50 missiles had crossed from Lebanon, some of which were intercepted.
Qasem was appointed Hezbollah's leader this week to replace Hassan Nasrallah, who was assassinated in an Israeli airstrike on Beirut last month. Both Hezbollah and Hamas are backed by Iran and considered terrorist organizations by the US and many other countries.
Israel's Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, speaking on Tuesday, said Hezbollah's chain of command is now demolished and estimated that its missile and rocket capability is 20% of what it was pre-conflict.
Talk of cease-fires have helped to push down oil prices. Brent crude sank more than 6% on Monday and Tuesday, before staging a partial recovery on Wednesday. The drop was also due to Israel avoiding Iran's most sensitive infrastructure "- such as oil and nuclear facilities "- when it carried out a strike on the Islamic Republic on Saturday.
"The war in the north will be over by the end of the year," Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich told reporters on Tuesday, referring to the Lebanese front. He added that 2025 "will not be a year of war, it will be a year of exiting the war."
Opposition leader and former Prime Minister Yair Lapid said he is receiving updates from the government on efforts to wind down fighting in Lebanon.
"I think it would be right to achieve a diplomatic victory," he said to Israel's Army Radio.
The conflict has forced tens of thousands of people to flee their homes on each side of the Israel-Lebanon border area.
Israel's attacks across Lebanon in the last six weeks have killed more than 2,000 people and displaced about 1.2 million, according to the Lebanese government. Almost 100 Israeli civilians and soldiers have been killed due to Hezbollah's strikes over the last year.
