Dubai: Former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has registered to run for presidency in a move described by Iran experts as a “political manoeuvre” by the man who allegedly defied the “advice” of the country’s Supreme Leader.
Arab analysts, meanwhile, anticipate the victory of the “conservative camp” in Iran’s upcoming presidential elections as a direct reaction to the victory of the right wing in the US and the election of President Donald Trump, who is taking tougher positions on Iran than his predecessor, Barack Obama.
Conservatives
Conservatives will take advantage of the conservative political climate in America and exert more effort to make sure President Hassan Rouhani, a ‘moderate’, doesn’t win a second term.
“The victory of the extreme right in the US will naturally boost the position of the extreme right in Iran, as well,” said Mohammad Abbas Nagi, Editor of Mukhtarat Iraniya (Iranian selections), an Iranian magazine published by the Cairo-based Al Ahram Strategic Studies Centre.
He pointed out that Ahmadinejad won the 2005 elections against the late reformist president Hashemi Rafsanjani at a time when the US administration of George W. Bush was escalating rhetoric and actions against Iran.
Meanwhile, the Iranian policy vis-a-vis the Arab countries is not expected to change regardless of whether a ‘moderate’ or ‘conservative’ candidate wins the elections.
“Iran’s foreign policy is in the hands of the military,” said Mahjoub Zweiri, a political scientist at Qatar University, and author and co-author of several books on Iran.
“Nothing has changed and nothing will change,” he added.
“During the past few years, we have been hearing about Iran’s positions from military leaders and Revolutionary Guard commanders, rather than from the president or the foreign minister,” Zweiri explained.
“Iran has many voices. While President Rouhani and his foreign minister (Mohammad Jawad) Zarif issue statements, the Revolutionary Guards, Al Quds forces (special unit of Iran’s revolutionary guards) and other extreme groups are carrying out actions on the ground that run contrary what the political leaders are saying,” Nagi said.
“Conservatives are in charge, regardless of who is president,” Nagi said.
Manoeuvre
Ahmadinejad’s decision to run for presidency has led to much speculation by observers.
“I believe this is just a political manoeuvre by Ahmadinejad to pave the way for his main candidate Hameed Baghaei, who has also registered to run in the elections,” Nagi added.
“It was not a coincidence that both Ahmadinejad and his (former) vice-president registered at the same time,” he told Gulf News.
“In my opinion, it aims to hint to the Guardian Council that Ahmadinejad is willing to withdraw from the race for his assistant to continue.”
The Guardian Council, a clerical body, needs to approve the candidates before they run in the presidential race on May 19.
However, other experts on Iran expect the Guardian Council to reject Ahmadinejad’s candidacy — he was advised by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei not to seek reelection.
“The council is headed by Ahmad Jannati, who is a close to the supreme leader,” said Zweiri.
“There are two options,” Zweiri told Gulf News. “Either the Council will approve the candidacy of Ahmadinejad and let the voters decide his fate,” he said.
“Or they reject him which will only boost his popularity as his supporters will view him as a hero and a victim.”
Zweiri is confident that his candidacy will be rejected.
'Shocking' defiance
Another expert says Ahmadinejad's move is a defiance of the country's powerful religious leaders.
“(His decision to register) is in clear defiance of what the supreme leader had stated very openly and very publicly,” said Ellie Geranmayeh, a policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations was quoted by AP as saying.
“What Ahmadinejad has done is quite shocking but it’s not the firm time he has done this. He also registered to run during his second presidential term.”
Ahmadinejad on Wednesday said the supreme leader only advised him not to run.
“Advice does not prevent me from running," he said. "There is extensive pressure on me from people from different walks of life to run in the election”, he added.
Meanwhile, experts on Iran believe that conservative cleric Ebrahim Raisi has the biggest chance to be the front-runner in the conservative camp.
