Iran-US tensions: Why the Strait of Hormuz is a potential flashpoint

As Iranian Navy warships and military assets thundered into a two-day live-fire drill in the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday (February 1), the US Central Command went public with a stark warning to Tehran.

The US military urged Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IGRC) to rein in what it called “escalatory behaviour” in one of the world’s most volatile waterways.

The US CentCom warning underscores mounting fears that a single “miscalculation” at sea — especially in the razor-thin waters of the strait — could ignite a direct military confrontation between the United States and Iran, even as both sides insist diplomacy is still alive.

The strait is a strategic international waterway through which a substantial share of the world’s oil shipments transit.

In recent days, US President Donald Trump confirmed that talks were underway with Iranian officials aimed at averting a military escalation, even as the US has moved substantial military assets — including an aircraft carrier strike group — closer to the region. 

CentCom said it “urges the IRGC to conduct the announced naval exercise in a manner that is safe, professional and avoids unnecessary risk to freedom of navigation for international maritime traffic.”

The Strait of Hormuz, it added, is “an international sea passage and an essential trade corridor that supports regional economic prosperity.”

US forces acknowledge Iran’s right to operate professionally in international airspace and waters.

Any unsafe and unprofessional behaviour near US forces, regional partners or commercial vessels increases risks of collision, escalation, and destabilisation.

CentCom added it will ensure the safety of US personnel, ships, and aircraft operating in the Middle East. 

“We will not tolerate unsafe IRGC actions including overflight of US military vessels engaged in flight operations, low-altitude or armed overflight of US military assets when intentions are unclear, highspeed boat approaches on a collision course with US military vessels, or weapons trained at US forces”.

In its statement, the command acknowledged Iran’s right to operate in international waters so long as its actions are professional and do not threaten other vessels.

But it made clear that unsafe or unprofessional behaviour “near U.S. forces, regional partners or commercial vessels increases the risks of collision, escalation, and destabilisation.”

CentCom spelled out several specific behaviours it would consider unacceptable, including:

The warning from CentCom comes amid broader geopolitical tension between Washington and Tehran. 

In recent days, US President Donald Trump confirmed that talks were underway with Iranian officials aimed at averting a military escalation, even as the US has moved substantial military assets — including an aircraft carrier strike group — closer to the region.

Trump said the US was in negotiations with Tehran and hoped to reach a deal that would leave Iran without nuclear weapons, though he also renewed warnings that time was running out for a pact. 

“(Iran is) talking to us, and we’ll see if we can do something,” he said.

Khamenei’s warning to Washington: Wider regional conflict

In Tehran, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned Washington that any U.S. military strike would trigger a wider regional conflict.

“The Americans should know that if they start a war, this time it will be a regional war,” he said, underscoring the high stakes of any confrontation.

Iran’s top security official, Ali Larijani, meanwhile, said progress was being made toward negotiations with the United States and dismissed ongoing media hostility, stating that “structural arrangements for negotiations are progressing.”

The IRGC has set a two-day live-fire naval drill in the Strait of Hormuz from February 1-2, 2026.

The live-fire drill has drawn international attention as roughly 100 merchant vessels regularly pass through the narrow waterway.