Egypt likely to face difficult relations with Israel, US

Cairo: Whatever new government emerges from the uprising in Tahrir Square, Egypt's relations with Israel and the United States are likely to become more difficult in the months ahead with an infusion of Arab nationalism and scepticism about Egypt's landmark peace treaty with Israel.

Many of those who helped oust President Hosni Mubarak, including secular democracy activists and Muslim Brotherhood leaders, say the 32-year-old treaty should be respected for now because Egypt is in political limbo and overwhelmed by internal upheavals.

But they add that when stability is restored, the pact should be submitted to the Egyptian people for approval, through a new parliament scheduled to be elected in September and then perhaps in a public referendum.

The desire to reconsider the treaty marks a clear difference with the policy of the ruling Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, which soon after Mubarak's February 11 departure declared that Egypt would respect all its international commitments, including the treaty with Israel. The open-ended declaration, reportedly made at US urging, was designed to reassure Israel, where Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had warned that his nation faced uncharted dangers in the months ahead.

Determined

Much about Egypt's policy towards Israel will be determined by the relationships that emerge between the military and the civilian government due to be elected later this year, which is expected to include representatives of many of the groups that brought down Mubarak.

"There was no real end to the war with Israel, just a truce," said Shadi Mohammad, a 26-year-old leader of the April 6 Movement that helped promote the Tahrir Square demonstrations.

"That's just my personal opinion, but there are a lot of people who think like I do."

The Israeli defence minister, Ehud Barak, said in a Fox News interview last week that the Muslim Brotherhood's expanded role represents a threat to Israel and also to Egypt itself.

But he expressed confidence that whatever government comes to power in Cairo will see its relationships with Israel, the United States and Europe as keys to maintaining economic health in this nation of 80 million mostly poor people.

Muslim Brotherhood for closer ties with Gaza

 Mohammad Maher, a Muslim Brotherhood activist helping organise for the parliamentary vote, said that if his group gains influence through the elections, Egypt is likely to pursue closer ties with Gaza, opening border crossings and promoting trade as a way to undermine the Israeli blockade.

The Brotherhood traditionally has focused on Gaza because the territory's ruling Palestinian group, Hamas, is an offshoot of the Brotherhood. Shady Ghazali Harb, a 32-year-old surgeon in the Democratic Front Party who supports Mohammad Al Baradei, the former UN nuclear agency chief, also advocated stronger action to relieve besieged Palestinians in Gaza.

"The environment there is inhuman," he said. These goals for Gaza would mark a sharp change from the way Israel and Egypt have done business in recent years. Mubarak, eager to maintain economic and military aid from the United States, cooperated closely with Israel in Gaza security matters.

"Mubarak believed the door to the United States was through Israel," said Mona Makram-Ebeid, a founding member of the Egyptian Council for Foreign Affairs and a former member of parliament who lectures at the American University in Cairo. "But that is no more."