Gori could be just the bargaining chip for Russia to hold on to Poti

Istanbul: The new political landscape does not have an imposing Checkpoint Charlie, it does not have barbed wire nor does it have goose-stepping soldiers. Instead it has mobile checkpoints made up of military vehicles, deserted villages and gun-slinging irregulars. But for all its informality these new checkpoints mark a definite line where Russian influence is paramount.

The Monroe Doctrine secured Washington's interests in countries south of the Mexican border. The Putin Protocol is trying to establish a similar line of influence for Russia's Near Abroad which may soon be their backyard.

As Nato gathers for its emergency summit, the fate of the central Georgian city of Gori will be debated. Russia has no problems with this and will use Stalin's birthplace as a bargaining chip in drawn-out diplomatic negotiations before making a well-publicised withdrawal.

What is of more significance to Russia is gaining a permanent hold in the Black Sea port of Poti, a town of far greater strategic value than Gori.

Black Sea base

Poti under Russian control will allow Moscow to increase pressure on Ukraine and embolden Russian citizens in the Crimea. If Ukraine becomes too pro-western for Moscow's liking, then the Crimea could be the next South Ossetia with Poti the ace in the Russian hand. If the Russian navy is kicked out of Ukraine, they will have access to Poti to guarantee a Black Sea base for the fleet.

On Sunday, a day after the Russians had signed the ceasefire accord, troops were still establishing positions in Western Georgia.

The procedure for arriving at checkpoints changed over the week as the mindset of those who manned them altered, becoming ever more belligerent and chilling. Drivers and passengers were often threatened at gunpoint and sometimes ordered to strip. Insult and humiliation became commonplace.

These are not the actions of armed groups expecting to retreat from land they have conquered.

In the present climate it is impossible to imagine the vest-wearing Abkhazian irregulars withdrawing from Western Georgia just as it is difficult to envision Russia giving up control of Poti with or without positioning troops in the city.