German military targets 8,300 drone systems, lagging NATO allies

The German military is looking to secure 8,300 drone systems by the end of the decade, far fewer than some of its NATO allies aim for, as spending on unmanned defense systems and autonomous weapons soars globally.

Germany’s armed forces plan to acquire the unmanned aerial systems, each of which can include multiple drones and equipment such as launchers and flight controllers, by 2029, according to a list of the ministry’s requirements that was reviewed by Bloomberg News.

By comparison, millions of drones have been used by Ukraine and Russia during their war. 

Both the US and UK have placed drones at the center of their plans to modernise their militaries. 

The scale of Germany’s plans to order reconnaissance drones, interceptors and loitering munitions was confirmed by a person familiar with the matter who asked to not be identified because the plans are not public. ​​​​

Germany is set to double its annual defense budget to as much as €162 billion ($188 billion) within four years. But the extra spending, which comes in response to Russia’s war in Ukraine and questions over the US commitment to European security, will largely go towards traditional military equipment that drones will supplement.

More than three years into Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, drones have become the deadliest weapons available to both sides and forced the adversaries to reconsider their use of armoured vehicles.

Other countries are taking note of how they’ve changed the frontlines of the largest conflict in Europe since World War II. 

The UK introduced a new doctrine this year that calls for as much as 80% of its forces in a land conflict to be autonomous and uncrewed. In the US, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth in July called drones the “biggest battlefield innovation in a generation” and said he would bolster domestic production. 

German defense officials don’t want to place large orders because they’re concerned the pace of innovation could make purchased systems obsolete quickly, according to people familiar with the discussions, who asked not to be identified when talking about classified matters.

The military doesn’t want to stockpile thousands of drones that are outdated by the time they are needed, they said.

The planned acquisitions are part of a drone strategy under development in which the government wants to set up the ability to scale up production quickly, the people said. 

The government said in early July in a response to a parliamentary inquiry that it had no information about the country’s capacity for drone manufacturing.

“Strategic documents on the use of and defense against unmanned systems are currently being coordinated internally,” a spokesperson for the German defense ministry said via email, while declining to comment on specific numbers. “The German Armed Forces continuously adapt their technical capabilities portfolio to the changing threat situation.”

Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has publicly embraced the importance of drones in modern war as he oversees the military procurement push.

“Our aim must be to think ahead, to be ahead of the wave,” including preparing for future conflicts that are marked by a higher degree of electronic warfare and drone usage, Pistorius said during a visit to a military innovation hub near Munich last month.

The equipment list calls for an arsenal of about 5,700 unmanned aerial systems, 560 interceptors and counter-drone complexes, and an additional 2,070 loitering munition systems in 2029. The unmanned aerial systems include mini-drones that are small enough to be carried by a soldier and longer-range reconnaissance UASs such as Rheinmetall AG’s Husar, according to the document. The figures don’t include a reserve of 20% or 40% of the equipment to ensure the full fleet is available during maintenance. 

The Defense Ministry is also planning to add deep strike drones that travel just below the speed of sound with a range of over 1,000 kilometers (621 miles) to its arsenal by 2029, according to people familiar with the plans who asked not to be identified when discussing classified matters. 

The Defense Ministry spokesperson declined to comment on that program. 

Germany needs to build up its industrial capacity for drones, according to Gundbert Scherf, co-chief executive officer of German defense startup Helsing. 

“The real innovation in drones is autonomy, but the real power comes from mass,” said Scherf, whose company raised €600 million in June. “To unlock both, we need to mass-produce and stockpile hardware while continuously upgrading the software.”

Germany signed contracts with Helsing and Stark Defense, another startup, to test both companies’ attack drones, Bloomberg News reported in April, citing people familiar with the deal.

Startups can’t afford to develop production capacity without large orders, according to Stark co-founder Florian Seibel, who is also the CEO of drone maker Quantum Systems.

“We won’t use our own funds to build up capacities that will never be called upon,” he said.

The growing importance of drones for militaries is clear in Ukraine, where some 70% of casualties come from drones on both sides, Royal United Services Institute analyst Robert Tollast said.

Ukraine produces millions of drones a year, including cheap first-person view quadcopters, surveillance aircraft, deep strike UAVs and interceptors that target incoming Russian weapons. Russia on a single day in July launched over 700 Shahed-type long-range drones at Ukraine. 

“NATO armies, and particularly the United States, obviously have been paying attention,” Tollast said. A few thousand quadcopters and loitering munitions “would just last days in a war like Ukraine,” he added. 

Buying drones might not be enough for the German military, according to Franz-Stefan Gady, a fellow at the Center for a New American Security.

“The real issue isn’t simply the existence of a strategy, but whether we’ve clearly defined the battlefield effects we want to achieve in the first place,” Gady said. “Only once those effects are identified can we develop the appropriate strategies.”