London: From some of the worst floods ever known in Britain, to record-breaking temperatures over the Christmas holiday in the US and and forest fires in Australia, the link between the tumultuous weather events experienced around the world in the last few weeks is likely to be down to the natural phenomenon known as El Nino making the effects of man-made climate change worse, say atmospheric scientists.
In the UK, there was a lull in the heavy rain on Monday, and the Environment Agency said river levels were stabilising or starting to fall. But nine severe flood warnings remained in place, and more rain was expected on Wednesday.
Estimates of the cost of this recent flooding reached up to several billion pounds. Extreme weather events are becoming more common, and more expensive, representatives of the British insurance industry said.
“Flood events have become more likely than 20 to 30 years ago,” said Malcolm Tarling, a spokesman for the Association of British Insurers, an industry group. “What was once classified as extreme is now being classified as normal.”
The group estimated that flooding in Cumbria in northwest England this month would cost insurers about Dh2.2 billion. More recent flooding had the potential to cost more because flooded areas like the centre of York and parts of Leeds include more businesses, Tarling said, and the average business insurance claim is higher than the average household claim.
The Met Office, Britain’s weather forecasting agency, attributed the heavy rains to the positioning of the atmospheric current called the jet stream.
“If we are in line with all the low-pressure systems moving through, we see more storms,” said Sophie Yeomans, a forecaster at the agency. “It just happens to be one of those winters where we have rain systems moving through.”
In some of the areas hit by flooding there has already been more than three times as much rain as normal in December, Yeomans said, and more rain was expected from a storm that was to begin lashing Britain on Tuesday evening.
Adding to the weather is the effect of El Nino, which occurs every seven to eight years and is caused by unusually warm water in the Pacific Ocean. This year’s event is now peaking and is one of the strongest on record, leading to record temperatures, rainfall and weather extremes.
“What we are experiencing is typical of an early winter El Nino effect,” said Adam Scaife, the head of the UK’s Met Office long-range forecasting.
“We expect 2016 to be the warmest year ever, primarily because of climate change but around 25 per cent because of El Nino,” said Scaife, who added that the phenomenon was not linked directly to climate change but made its effects worse.
Scientists have warned for years that extreme weather would become more common as a result of climate change, but have until recently fought shy of attributing single events to global warming.
But researchers at Oxford University and the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) calculated earlier this month that man-made climate change was partly responsible for Storm Desmond’s torrential rain, which devastated parts of Scotland, the Lake District and Northern Ireland. The scientists ran tens of thousands of simulations of the flooding event and found it 40 per cent more likely with climate change.
The UN’s World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) also expects 2015 to be the hottest year on record worldwide, with Europe experiencing its second hottest year. It was marked by heatwaves in India, Pakistan and elsewhere.
The latest floods, droughts and extreme weather are what might be expected of a strong El Nino, according to the WMO. “Severe droughts and devastating flooding are being experienced throughout the tropics, and subtropical zones bear the hallmarks of this El Niño,” said the organisation’s chief, Michel Jarraud.
“Much of eastern Europe has been exceptionally warm, with temperatures higher than in 2014. Only in parts of Ireland were temperatures lower than the 1981 to 2010 long-term average, according to the climate indicator bulletin from WMO’s European regional climate centre.
The widespread El Nino effects are are now being felt in Africa, Latin America, Indonesia and Papua New Guinea, the WMO said.
In Central America, one of the most severe droughts on record has left 3.5 million people in Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador in need of food aid. The UN says that more than 2 million people have been affected in Peru and Ecuador.
In Ethiopia, the government estimates that 10.2 million people will need help in 2016 at a cost of $1.4 billion (Dh5.1 billion). Elsewhere in Africa, staple crops have been devastated in Kenya, Malawi and South Africa. Food shortages are expected to peak in southern Africa in February.
“Over 39 million people in Africa are expected to face food insecurity by January 2016, an increase of more than 70 per cent on January 2015”, said a spokeswoman at the Department for International Development.
