Focus shifts to General Ashfaq Kiyani

Islamabad: When Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte visited Pakistan last weekend, he met once with President Pervez Musharraf, for two hours. But before he left town, he held three meetings with a lesser-known figure: General Ashfaq Kiyani, the deputy army chief.

The two shared a Saturday night dinner.

The attention paid to Kiyani has affirmed speculation here that he will soon be anointed Musharraf's successor as head of the army - and, as such, will be a vital ally for the Bush administration during a time of crisis.

"Use your influence. You can help save Pakistan," Negroponte told Kiyani during the visit, according to a Western diplomat who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Musharraf has repeatedly said he will step down from his army post. It remains unclear when he will do so. But if Kiyani is named successor, he will command Pakistan's 600,000 troops and lead the country's most important institution.

Power in Pakistan flows from the uniform, as a popular saying here goes. Half of the country's rulers have been sons of the military.

Kingmakers

"To understand the power of Pakistan, you have to understand it's the military that matters. And they are kingmakers here," said Shireen Mazan of the Institute of Strategic Studies in Islamabad.

"I don't know if that implies that Kiyani can indeed influence Musharraf politically right now. But he may well do in the future, if history is an indicator."

With the political uncertainty continuing in Pakistan, analysts say Kiyani is key to Musharraf's own future.

Few say Kiyani would attempt a coup because, for now at least, top military leaders would not support it. And Kiyani, 55, has his own reasons not to press Musharraf to lift emergency rule or resign as president.

"He won't risk his own job since time is on his side," said Talat Masood, a former general who is now a political analyst.

Masood added "the US emphasis is correct."

"They have to cultivate him and make sure they get along well with each other," he said. "Because if, down the road, the army feels their reputation is sinking along with Musharraf, well, that is when you have seen a change of power in Pakistan throughout history."

Pakistan's army was once the most popular institution in the country. Bumper stickers proclaimed, "Good Men Serve in the Pakistani Army." Wars with India over Kashmir were a unifying factor against a common enemy.

But Musharraf and the troops he commands have lost support among many Pakistanis. The president has been criticised for undermining national interests in favour of the Bush administration's in counterterrorism operations.