Afghan peace talks: There are glad tidings, but Pakistan must tread carefully

Here is the silver lining - the proverbial one, which is, the possibility of a way out of the Afghan conundrum.

Such glad tidings and within reach. Seventeen years later, at a cost of billions, and eventually, it is back to negotiations. So the ‘let’s talk our way-out-of-this and into a doable framework despite our maximalist positions’ shift has managed to thaw the freeze. The US under President Donald Trump, eager to end unwinnable wars, has wisely recognised that Afghanistan is futile, expensive and messy. The good thing in this case, if we consider this from the perspective of strategic foresight, Trump is spot on.

For the American president, managing the coalition, despite the dressing downs to Nato and mocking the very fabric of the US-EU alliance strengthened over decades since the end of WWII, a clear exit is the priority. Ironically, however one might view this, there is a glimmer of truth in the old adage that no outsider rises victorious from the graveyard of the empires. The remaining American troops are to be recalled. Hence the haste, the renewed vigour to meet the Taliban half way or even more and hammer out an agreement.

But it is sincerely hoped that the agreement the US and the Taliban eventually decide upon along with the leadership in Kabul, is for the benefit of the Afghan people. There are too many deterrents to reach that point as yet, especially when the Taliban refuses to acknowledge President Ashraf Ghani’s government other than a puppet regime propped up by the Americans. But the insurgents are also well aware that they would have to back down on their vociferous stance if they want a political settlement.

Zalmay Khalilzad, the US special envoy, has offered us real hope based on his assessment of the latest round of negotiations between the stakeholders that a viable agreement could be reached.

Pakistan provides the crucial link between the two sides. Though it has been on the receiving end of a US tirade for a while for allegedly harbouring and thus helping the Afghan insurgents and hampering war efforts, it was called on yet again to help. Pakistan’s contacts with the Afghan insurgents, which were its bane till now, have thus proved to be a blessing. For Pakistan, there is too much at stake if the peace efforts fail and the US makes a hasty retreat without tying up loose ends.

The Pakistan government’s initiative to fence the over 2,400km Durand Line at a cost of nearly $550 million to control cross-border insurgent movement and attacks may be the saving grace. Moreover, it was a necessary retaliatory measure against constant allegations of upsetting Afghanistan’s stability by aiding insurgents. It also offered Pakistan protection against fighters of Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) that had fled after military operations in eastern Afghanistan, which is also embedded with the Khorasan faction of Daesh. The good thing is that the so-called Taliban apologist premier Imran Khan has also been a longtime advocate for negotiations and so is keen to expedite the peace talks between the US and Afghan Taliban. Besides, Khan’s efforts to realign ties with neighbouring countries is a positive development.

Khan’s record of strongly opposing military operations in Pakistan’s tribal areas and calls for peace talks is well known. It is not surprising that he has been recalling his past statements in satisfied glee since Khalilzad began his shuttle diplomacy. While a dovish stance is pleasing to the eye, a political breakthrough in talks could only happen when the state is in a position of strength to negotiate to its advantage. Otherwise it would be the insurgents calling the shots, using the ceasefire and negotiation window to recoup their losses, regroup and form fresh battle lines. That is what happened in earlier peace talks with the TTP in Pakistan during Musharraf’s time. Thus, the decision to launch military operations from 2008 onwards was the correct and timely thing to do.

Pakistan insurgents are still at bay, many residing in Afghanistan at present. While the army has delivered North Waziristan on a platter to the civilian security forces the TTP’s and its unholy allies remain a credible threat. It would be unwise for Pakistan to get oblivious to this.

The damaged ties between Kabul and Islamabad could be salvaged if there was a commitment and concerted efforts on both sides. Bringing peace to Afghanistan by brokering peace talks with Taliban could well provide that chance to do so. But it is easier said than done. While one might be forgiven for indulging in a pro-peace reverie it would be a good idea to maintain perspective. There are too many stakeholders involved in Afghanistan at present. China, Iran and India for one besides Pakistan.

The mineral wealth of Afghanistan and the immense potential it offers as a conduit for trans-regional trade are some of the incentives on offer - besides the existing security paradigms – attracting these esteemed friends of Afghanistan.

Would they all be squabbling for the greater share of spoils once the US leaves? I believe so as is the diktat of realpolitik.

More urgent is the issue of how the Afghan factions divide the political pie amongst themselves? Without international forces, Kabul does not stand a chance to withstand the insurgents’ onslaught. Take the Afghan security forces for example. Despite extensive training, resources, weaponry and support by foreign forces, they’ve suffered a loss of 45,000 personnel since late 2014 alone.

Therefore, Khalilzad and other stakeholders must toe a cautious line before breaking bread with the Taliban. Any political solution must be phased before the pull out of US troops lest all mayhem breaks loose and the Taliban renege on commitments sensing the upper hand. It is a real possibility.

The issue of the exit of foreign forces is highly contentious as Taliban have made it a precondition before inking any peace deal. Therein lies the twist. But the show must go on and it is hoped that all sides continue engaging. They might very well reach a consensus. Till then, let’s keep our fingers crossed.