NDA struggling to hold on to its majority; tally revised downwards

With three days to go before the next round of India's grand political spectacle on April 26, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is struggling to hold on to its majority. Projections from opinion polls commissioned by Gulf News- NDTV- Indian Express conducted by AC Nielsen revise the NDA tally to 255-275, down from the 260-280 forecast after the first round on April 20.

The opposition Congress is predicted to win 175-195 seats, up marginally from the 165-180 seats that exit polls had pointed to then.

While it can take comfort from the landslide in the eastern outpost of Orissa where the Biju Janata Dal is expected to sweep the polls and win 17 seats in parliament and a clear majority in the assembly, the Bharatiya Janata Party's biggest jolt will come in the southern state of Andhra Pradesh.

Albeit a junior partner with Chandrababu Naidu's Telugu Desam, the BJP-TDP alliance will be unable to make up the loss in the first round of polling on April 20 in the largely Telangana areas where the TDP saw a six per cent towards the Congress- Telangana Rashtra Samiti alliance.

The 21 remaining constituencies of the 42 that go to the polls on April 26 are from the Rayalseema and Coastal Andhra districts, traditional Telugu Desam strongholds.

But here too Naidu will face voter fatigue and anti-incumbency as over half the lawmakers both for parliament and the assembly are repeat candidates.

Here, there is a two per cent swing away from the TDP with the result that Naidu's party will win only seven seats, the Cong-ress will get 14. Statewide therefore it is 24 seats to the Congress-TRS and 17 seats to the TDP-BJP.

The other blow to the NDA will be from the land of Laloo, where the Bihar strongman will maintain his hold during the second phase of polling in the northern districts where in '99 he had only won six seats.

This time, with clever alliance with the Communist parties, CPM and CPI, as well as the Congress and rival turned ally Ram Vilas Paswan, Laloo will benefit from a five per cent swing in his favour. His alliance will win eight seats out of the 17 that are polling, the BJP will win nine.

But the overall projection for the state as a whole shows that the BJP could take a step back winning only 13 seats as opposed to Laloo's 15. Some of the NDA allies like Defence Minister George Fernandes and BJP's Civil Aviation Minister Rajiv Pratap Rudy could be in deep trouble.

Bihar also faces elections during the third phase on May 5.

The NDA has fared poorly in Jharkhand as well where the Congress alliance with the Jharkhand Mukti MOrcha garners 8 out 14 seats, leaving the BJP with six, down from the 11 it won last time.

The NDA can take comfort however from Maharashtra where in the Konkan and Bombay districts that poll in the second phase it cashes in on the anti-incumbency wave against the Congress to win 12 out of the 24 seats.

The BJP-Shiv Sena alliance has seen its clout grow in the Konkan and the main cities of the state. The Congress with its much needed alliance with the Nationalist Congress Party also wins 12.

For the Congress which saw Vidarbha and the sugar baron hinterland as its fiefdoms, the revised numbers downwards must be a bitter pill swallow. The state is projected as the BJP-SS winning 27 seats and the Congress winning 20.

The biggest gain for the BJP will come from the southern state of Karnataka which has never seen such a huge surge in popularity for the saffron party.

Unlike before when the two main contenders were the Janata Dal and the Congress, the BJP is expected to come from behind and win a whopping nineteen seats, with the Congress barely managing seven in this round which wraps up polling for all 28 seats in Karnataka.

The assembly however could see the S M Krishna government riding out anti-incumbency.

The key state of Uttar Pradesh will see a four sided contest in the 32 seats that are being contested in the first phase.

Polls predict that the Congress will fare extremely poorly here with questions being raised even over the star seat of Rae Bareli where Congress president Sonia Gandhi is contesting.

The BJP could win 13 of these seats, while other regional parties like Mulayam Singh Yadav's Samajwadi Party will get 15.

The NDA has done well in Karnataka in the first phase of the elections and is expected to do well next week as well – but not as well as in the first phase. The biggest loss to the NDA so far is the loss of its stranglehold on Andhra Pradesh.