Leadership issues add to election uncertainty in India

EVENT: Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is making "excellent progress" after undergoing coronary bypass surgery last week, a spokesman said. He is expected to "return home soon" after pre-discharge tests.

SIGNIFICANCE: The date of the next general election has yet to be declared, but there are strong signs that the Lok Sabha (lower house of parliament) will be dissolved in April, with the election taking place by early May. As frantic manoeuvring gets underway between the three principal alliance blocs, questions over party leadership are adding to the uncertainty.

In the last cabinet reshuffle, several members of the inner coterie of young Congressmen surrounding Rahul Gandhi were inducted into the government.

Mayawati's bid to turn the BSP into a national party in its own right has faced disappointment in regional elections outside her local base.

The BJP's failure to capitalise on the government's difficulties has put Congress back in contention for the impending general election.

ANALYSIS:

Several months ago, general election prospects appeared dismal for the Congress party, which leads the present United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government.

Inflation was rising rapidly, while a bitter dispute over the US-India nuclear agreement forced it to confront a parliamentary 'no-confidence' motion, which it only narrowly won.

However, inflation has now fallen and the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) failed to make ground in recent regional elections.

This has left the general election race wide open, albeit with each party confronting problems that could hamper its performance, especially against the background of an economic downturn

The Congress party is facing questions about who will lead it into the election.

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is 77 and has just undergone open-heart surgery.

Many of his cabinet are of a similar age, and there are questions about whether they could withstand the rigours of another five-year term.

Moreover, party President Sonia Gandhi has not attempted to disguise her ambitions for her son, Rahul Gandhi, to become the fourth generation of their family to lead the country:

In the last cabinet re-shuffle, several members of the inner coterie of young Congressmen surrounding Rahul Gandhi were inducted into the government, and the time may have come for him to assume his place at their head.

However, this brings a considerable risk to Congress's electoral chances: whereas Singh enjoys a strong reputation for competence and personal probity, Sonia Gandhi's promotion of her son has brought popular allegations of nepotism.

Rahul Gandhi's performance in recent regional election campaigns has also failed to inspire the confidence of some party colleagues.

He played a prominent campaigning role in three states - Uttar Pradesh (UP), Gujarat and Karnataka - but Congress lost badly in each.

Fortunately for Sonia Gandhi, it is not incumbent upon her to make a binding, advance nomination of the party's next prime ministerial candidate.

This may allow Singh to present himself as the incumbent at the polls, with any changes to follow afterwards.

Another uncertainty concerns the line-up of regional parties that will follow Congress into the UPA:

The Samajwadi Party, based mainly in UP, joined the alliance in the summer when several small parties left in opposition to the US-India nuclear agreement, but its relations with the Congress have since been tense.

The National Congress Party (NCP) has also seized the moment to demand a more favourable distribution of seats and to hint that it has alternative options.

Sonia Gandhi's reputation for dealing with party allies has never been strong and there is a risk that, even if the Congress consolidates its own position with the electorate, UPA desertions could still leave it short of a Lok Sabha majority.

Much the same applies for the BJP, whose supporting National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has shrunk from 24 members at the last general election to six today.

Some of the deserters (such as the Telugu Desam Party - TDP) left early because of the party's shift towards a more strident Hindu nationalist tone, which followed the disappointment of its 2004 general election defeat.

Others (such as the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, AIADMK) have left more recently in disputes over seat-sharing and patronage.

These latter issues also affect relations with the residual members of the NDA, which are resisting attempts by the BJP's leadership to re-assert its prerogatives within the alliance. It is not yet certain that any other parties will choose to stand beside the BJP at the April/May polls.

It is also unclear who will lead the party:

Eighty year-old former Deputy Prime Minister LK Advani is currently the official leader, but his attempts to curb Hindu nationalist extremism have put him at odds with the Sangh Parivar ('family') of cultural organisations, which lend popular enthusiasm to the BJP's cause.

Moreover, in the wings stands Narendra Modi, the chief minister of Gujarat, who enjoys legendary status with the party faithful but whose role in the 2002 Gujarat killings has left him tainted, both nationally and internationally.

Poor election results in Rajasthan and Delhi - where not even a soaring inflation rate and the Mumbai terrorist attack could reduce the Congress vote - have raised serious questions about Advani's leadership. Kalyan Singh, twice the party's chief minister in UP, has recently left the party, and Bhairon Singh Shekawat, another venerable regional leader, has hinted that he will contest Advani's position.

In many ways, the immediate beneficiary of the problems inside the principal national parties has been a prospective 'Third Front', organised by the Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M) from its regional bases in West Bengal and Kerala:

This has picked up a series of deserters from both camps as well as assorted fractions of the Janata Dal.

Its regional strength could see it poll very well in the general election.

However, a key question is whether and what kind of government it could form afterwards.

Its communist centre would find itself in alliance, on the one side, with the AIADMK (whose leader, Jayalalitha Jayaram has faced repeated allegations of corruption) and, on the other, with the TDP (whose leader, Chandrababu Naidu, is one of India's strongest advocates of liberal capitalism).

As with the United Front government of 1996-98, which also consisted of a coalition of regional parties without the Congress or BJP, there are fears that a Third Front could provide only very weak governance - at a time of acute economic and international difficulties.

Meanwhile, many eyes will be turning to Mayawati, the fiery Dalit (low caste) woman who leads the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) in the government of UP, India's largest state:

Mayawati's bid to turn the BSP into a national party in its own right has faced disappointment in regional elections outside her local base.

However, a solid performance in UP, besides weakening both the UPA and NDA, could yet put her in a position to determine who forms the next national government.

She has in the past shown herself willing to work with the Congress and BJP, and in recent weeks has held talks with the communists.

Mayawati's influence is unlikely to be enough to win her the premiership, but she could end up with the decisive say over who takes the office.

If so, India might yet enjoy its own symbolic 'Obama moment', with the nation's future lying in the hands of someone whose status was previously demeaned - both as a woman and as a Dalit.

CONCLUSION:

The BJP's failure to capitalise on the government's difficulties has put Congress back in contention for the impending general election.

However, regionalisation and party fragmentation make a hung parliament a near certainty, creating a situation where fluid loyalties could carry any one of the three cross-party alliances into government.