Jayalalitha: Out of reach, out of touch

Ootacamund: Tamil Nadu's Chief Minister Jayalalitha likes a clear view when she addresses her audience from her bullet proof van.

But as the police make you sit on your haunches, where you are automatically placed in the role of supplicant, and then again at her window which she rolls down to answer your questions, you are made to feel you are in the presence of royalty.

The question then is this what does she see from her limited interaction with the ordinary people? The need to perpetuate her mystique could be a carry-over from the days when her legendary beauty as a film star set off a frenzy among her admirers.

Reasons

It could also be a calculated move to keep interest alive, to keep her largely plebian followers intrigued, or the most plausible reason that the heightened security threat makes her a prime target of terrorists.

But is she out of touch with the people? Apart from a slew of campaign promises, there is no effort to actively engage the masses with stirring stump speeches or even interact with the crowd along the way.

At the bus stand where she has stopped to speak, from her van, the audience is clearly partisan, seeking to score points with the lady and attract her attention every time she makes another campaign offer.

The trademark white dhoti (sarong) and the dozen jeeps that were parked around the corner is the give-away these are committed party workers jeeped in to swell the numbers, not the denizens of this quaint hill town.

Vaiko factor

As she bandies about a crore (10 million) here and a crore there, analysts who only two weeks ago had predicted a close fight given her clever move to wean away southern strongman Vaiko from the opposition Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam, are saying that Karunanidhi's DMK-led alliance has a narrow edge.

Vaiko had preferred Amma Jayalalitha, as she offered 35 seats to the DMK's 22. Now actor Sharath Kumar has also joined her.

But the political arithmetic could still favour the DMK as it retains the powerful Pattali Makal Katchi, the party of the Vanniyar community, which has strong support in eastern and northern Tamil Nadu, while the Congress, no more than a bit player in this state has pockets of support in the south.

The left parties and the Indian Union Muslim League who are also part of the DMK alliance retain their influence in areas that border neighbouring Kerala.

Neither 'Amma' nor Vaiko have been able to explain their blatantly short-term political alliance to the people.

She had jailed Vaiko under stringent new laws against terrorism, while Vaiko had broken dramatically with the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance government on the same issue to join Karunanidhi.

His amazing journey through the backlanes of Tamil Nadu had helped the DMK alliance sweep the 2004 Lok Sabha elections.

But this time, analysts say that Vaiko will find it hard to explain himself to the people, and could at best splinter the DMK vote. On his own, he may be unable to win any seats.

The only real asset is that his Marumalarchi DMK and the Dalit Panthers, two parties that represent the backwards, bring to Jayalalitha's group the value of their vote banks but that may not be enough to power her back to Fort St George.

Jayalalitha, battling an anti-incumbency wave must depend on her own charisma and committed following to comprehensively win this one.

Does she have a clear view from the top?