Intrigues dominate Kerala poll scene

Thiruvananthapuram: Five years after the 2004 Lok Sabha polls when a 'red wash' swept Kerala with the Left Democratic Front winning 18 of the state's 20 seats, the political scene presents a different picture.

Going by Kerala's political history of the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the United Democratic Front (UDF) alternating in the government, this time it should have been a landslide for the UDF. However, the ground realities are a bit different this time, and there is more intra-front intrigue than real issues being discussed in the run-up to the polls.

Interestingly, the key feature of the polls this time is the bickerings in both fronts.

The LDF witnessed friction among its coalition members like never before, and a large number of Congress cadres are unhappy about the candidate selection. The prospects of the Bharatiya Janata Party look as bleak as ever in the present election, too. The BJP is yet to win a single assembly or Lok Sabha seat in the state.

Friction in the LDF reached such proportions over the seat allocation that the Revolutionary Socialist Party (RSP) threatened to withdraw its minister from the state cabinet. The Communist Party of India (CPI) almost walk ed out of the coalition, and the Janata Dal (S) withdrew its lone minister Mathew T. Thomas. All these were to protest the manner in which the Communist Party of India Marxist (CPM) dominated seat allocation.

At the end of it all, the CPM had its way even as the junior partners of the coalition were forced to grin and bear its decisions. The RSP did not pull out its minister, the CPI had to agree to CPM's demand to have Hussain Randathani contest in Ponnani, and the Janata Dal (S) was evicted from Kozhikode though party state president M.P. Veerendrakumar is the sitting MP from Kozhikode.

Internal bickering is not the sole preserve of the Left this time, and there has been turmoil within the Congress too. When All India Congress Committee general secretary Tom Vadakkan expressed his desire to contest from Thrissur, local Congressmen called him a broom of the party high command, forcing him to call off his plans.

Since then, there has been more heartburn within the Congress regarding candidate selection. Local reports point to some dissatisfaction in the ranks of the Congress regarding the choice of candidates like K.V. Thomas for the Ernakulam constituency, and Shashi Tharoor for Thiruvananthapuram.

Because of the dissatisfaction brewing in both fronts, observers point out that the CPM, for instance, may not work with full enthusiasm for the success of the CPI candidates, and the Janata Dal (S) is unlikely to put in their best efforts to ensure the victory of CPM candidates after their inglorious sacking from the Kozhikode constituency.

On the same lines, dissatisfaction among the youth cadres in the Congress who were upset with the selection of seniors as candidates may show in the votes of the Congress.

As for youth in general, the Left has taken a new step by fielding a number of young candidates including K.K. Ragesh in Kannur, Sindhu Joy in Ernakulam and P.K. Biju in Alathur. In contrast, the Congress has stuck to the tried and tested seniors, thereby invoking the wrath of the youth members of the party.

Another key feature of the 2009 Lok Sabha poll in Kerala is the Abdul Nasser Madani factor. The CPM decided to befriend Madani, a move not approved by other parties in the coalition, most notably by the CPI.

Another factor that the Left will have to face is the displeasure of the Christian church towards its policies in recent years. The church and the LDF have been at loggerheads for some time, particularly over the Left's policies on education front.

A recent video showing a bishop in bad light, used for teacher's training, was the latest point of confrontation between the church and the CPM-led state government. Pastoral letters issued by the Catholic church in recent weeks have told the laity to vote against "those who promote atheism", pointing to the church's stand.

Delimitation of constituencies has introduced another imponderable factor. The redrawing of constituencies after more than three decades has affected power equations. This is one area where even seasoned politicians are unsure about how the equations will work out this time.