Lucknow: The BJP is expected to retain control of India’s most populous state after a month-long voting process ended on Monday, according to opinion polls.
Holding onto Uttar Pradesh would give a huge boost to the party’s hopes of winning a third straight term at the centre in the 2024 general election.
The BJP and its allies are expected to win anywhere between 211 to 277 seats out of 403 in the state, a comfortable majority, according to four polls carried out for new channels. Votes will be counted on Thursday.
The BJP and its allies won more than 300 seats in the last state election five years ago.
Uttar Pradesh, estimated to have more people than Brazil, seems to have gone for continuity despite the BJP state and federal governments’ much-criticised handling of a catastrophic COVID-19 wave last year, high unemployment, and anger against farm reforms that Modi had to roll back late last year after months of protests.
The BJP has maintained all along that it was going to keep the northern state because of its policies like giving free staples to the poor during the pandemic, a fall in crime rates, and Prime Minister Modi’s personal popularity.
“The guidance of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the improved condition of law and order, beneficiary schemes are going to keep us in power and today’s opinion polls are also suggesting the same,” said Sameer Kumar Singh, a BJP spokesperson in the state.
The BJP’s nearest rival in Uttar Pradesh, Samajwadi Party, said it would return to power in the state.
A win in Uttar Pradesh could also be a seal of approval for Yogi Adityanath, the state’s current chief minister who is seen as a possible successor to Modi.
In other states, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is ahead in Punjab, the Congress is within striking distance of the majority mark in Uttarakhand, while Goa is again throwing up a hung Assembly, as per the Exit Poll.
Arvind Kejriwal’s AAP is way ahead of the Congress and Akali Dal in Punjab, as per the Exit Poll.
AAP is projected to get 56 seats in the 117-member Punjab assembly, within striking distance of the majority mark. The ruling Congress is slated to get 25 seats while the Akali Dal is projected to get 23 seats.
The X factor in Punjab elections is that a large number of marginal seats will be decisive.
In Uttarakhand, the Congress is very close to the majority mark and is projected to get 35 seats in the 70-member Assembly. The ruling BJP is projected to get 29 seats. The others category in Uttarakhand is likely to get 5 seats of which 3 is likely for BSP.
The BJP is losing vote share by 5.7 per cent at 40.8 per cent, while the Congress is gaining the similar numbers at 39.3 per cent.
Goa is projected for a hung Assembly with no party or block getting a majority. The ruling BJP is marginally ahead of Congress with 15 seats in the 40-member Assembly. The Congress alliance is at 14 seats. The MGP is getting 7 seats and AAP is getting 3 seats in Goa, as per the Exit Poll.
BJP’s vote share is at 32.7 per cent, followed by the Congress at 30.2 per cent, AAP at 14.5 per cent and MGP at 10.5 per cent.
In Manipur, there is no clear verdict. The BJP is the single largest party at 25 seats in the 60-member Assembly, followed by Congress at 14 and NPP at 12.
Thre current survey findings and projections are based on C-Voter Exit Poll/Post Poll personal interviews conducted on pollling day and after polling day among 18+ adults statewide.
The sample size was 17,480 for Uttarakhand, 16,533 for Punjab, 5,502 for Goa and 5,269 for Manipur. The projection comes with 95 per cent Confidence interval.
AAP may come to power in Punjab: CGS
The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) may come to power in Punjab with a massive majority, according to a survey conducted by the Centre for Global Studies, University of Delhi.
The survey projected 70 seats for AAP in the 117-member state Assembly, while the ruling Congress may not even get half of what AAP is projected to win.
The Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) alliance may not win even a single seat.
According to the survey, the ruling Congress may win 29 seats with a vote share of 23.5 per cent. AAP is likely to win 70 seats with a vote share of 40.2 per cent, while the BJP and allies may win 17 seats with a vote share of 15.8 per cent. The SAD alliance may not win even a single seat and get 6.8 per cent votes.
Sunil K. Choudhary, Director, Centre for Global Studies, said the Punjab Assembly Election Surveys 2022 attempted to conduct election studies based on a critical, objective and scientific research methodology in social sciences.
The Centre for Global Studies, formerly Development Countries Research Centre (DCRC), was set up in 1990 and got affiliated to the Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Delhi, in 2004.
