Oil-rich Alberta votes on Canada breakup

Alberta decides Monday if it wants to pursue a binding referendum on leaving Canada, with Prime Minister Mark Carney warning a separatist win would bring dangerous uncertainty during a trade war with the United States.

Polls indicate less than a quarter of people in the western Canadian province support independence.

But attention has focused on turnout in the days before the vote, and whether a motivated separatist camp could defy the polls, helped by complacent federalists.

"Don't let anyone tell you this is already decided. Turnout will determine the outcome," Carney told a rally on Thursday.

Carney, who grew up in Alberta, has called the referendum "a dangerous bluff" as US President Donald Trump imposes punishing tariffs and levels annexation threats aimed -- the prime minister says -- at breaking Canadian resolve.

"Vote like Canada depends on it, because it does," Carney said.

Alberta has the world's fourth-largest proven oil reserves and separatist momentum has been driven by anger over Ottawa's management of the sector.

Many Albertans loathed Carney's predecessor, Justin Trudeau, who they accused of trying to suppress oil production to advance his pro-climate agenda.

"If you want me to pinpoint who is responsible for the separatist sentiment, I think it's Justin Trudeau," Alberta Premier Danielle Smith told the Canadaland podcast this month. 

At a separatist rally in Edmonton on Saturday, 61-year-old Sandy Martel said people connected to the oil industry feel "robbed, cheated (and) mistreated."

"It's time to stand up and say stop," she told AFP.

The vote comes days after a fire at a military base in the province left at least four soldiers dead and wounded dozens, prompting a national outpouring of condolences.

Smith, a conservative, says she wants Alberta to remain in Canada but called the referendum to settle the divisive issue.

If a majority votes to separate, she has pledged to move forward with a binding referendum.

If the federalists win, Smith says the secession question should be considered closed.

Analysts have compared Smith's tactics to those of former UK prime minister David Cameron, who had hoped to resolve the debate over Britain's European Union membership with a vote.

Carney led the Bank of England through the turmoil that surrounded Brexit, and issued a warning to Albertans about that experience on Thursday.

"It wasn't clear what 'Brexit' meant at the time," he told a Calgary television station. 

"For the next few years, while that was being determined, there was huge uncertainty, investments stopped, the economy started to underperform," he added, cautioning over unintended economic consequences.

Monday's referendum features 10 questions, including several related to immigration, but focus is on question 10, which asks: "Should Alberta remain a province of Canada?" or should the province take the legal steps required for a definitive independence vote?

Alberta's election authority says ballots for question 10 will be counted first, with results expected in the early hours Tuesday.

The pre-referendum period was clouded by avalanches of manipulated AI content.

Carney has urged "a decisive result," but experts are concerned about a contested outcome no matter the numbers.

"A very likely result of this referendum is going to be a community that sees this election as stolen or at least unfair," said Aengus Bridgman, director of the Media Ecosystem Observatory at McGill University.

Close Trump allies have also inserted themselves into the discussion, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who in January described Alberta as a "natural partner" for the United States.

After a separatist party won Quebec's provincial election on October 5, tech billionaire Elon Musk posted on X that "they would be better off" if they seceded. 

"Alberta and Saskatchewan should separate too," he added.

Asked about alleged foreign interference, Carney said Thursday that foreign governments, including the US, should not "get themselves involved in our elections."