Air Force weighs keeping 1970s-era missiles until 2050

(Bloomberg) -- The US Air Force is considering contingency plans that would extend the life of 1970s-era intercontinental ballistic missiles by 11 more years to 2050 if delays continue to plague the new Sentinel models intended to replace them.

The current plan is to remove all 400 Minuteman III ICBMs made by Boeing Co. from silos by 2039. But the Air Force and lead contractor Northrop Grumman Corp. must manage the elaborate process to take out the older missiles, refurbish the silos and then install Sentinels — a nuclear missile minuet that must be accomplished without letting down the nation’s nuclear guard.

The Sentinel was projected last year to be deployed starting in May 2029. The first test flight was once projected for December 2023, but fiscal 2025 budget documents indicated a slip to February 2026.

The Air Force and Pentagon acquisition officials continue to review the implications of a projected 81% increase that defense officials disclosed last year in the Sentinel program’s cost — to at least $141 billion.

The Sentinel is the land-based portion of the land-air-sea nuclear triad and is key to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s vow to bolster the lethality of the American arsenal. 

The Air Force said in a statement to Bloomberg News that it’s continuing to develop a revised acquisition strategy. “Further details will be available after the updated strategy is approved, which is currently expected in 2026,” it said. “The Air Force will not have a new timeline and phasing for transition” from the Minuteman III to Sentinel “until the program is restructured,” it said.

Against that backdrop, the Air Force’s “Integrated Product Team,” which oversees the Minuteman III, met last month at Hill Air Force Base in Utah.

In meetings labeled “Secret,” the team was to evaluate “End of Life 2050” issues such as batteries and testing strategy, according to an agenda of the closed session obtained by Bloomberg News.

“The program office tracks over 1,600 elements,” the Air Force said in the statement, while communicating “risks and mitigation strategies to the Air Force for continued sustainment” of Minuteman III until its replacement is deployed.

The meeting was not intended “to recommend end-of-life dates for MMIII but to communicate risks and mitigation strategies to the Air Force for continued sustainment of MMIII until Sentinel is fielded,” according to the statement. “The program office uses meetings like this as part of a regular rhythm to discuss strategies to ensure the effectiveness of the ground-based nuclear deterrent.”

Northrop struck a positive tone. “We continue to make substantial progress on the Sentinel Weapon System, including the missile,” the contractor said in a statement. 

“On March 6, we completed the missile’s stage one static fire test, the latest of many test events that validate the rocket motor’s performance and digital design,” the company added. “We continue to mature the design and reduce risk as we prepare for production and deployment of this essential national security capability.”

Still, “it sounds to me like the Air Force is expecting the Sentinel missile to be delayed,” said James Acton, co-director of the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, who’s closely followed the Minuteman III program. “The Air Force should take a fresh look” at whether extending the life of the older missiles could eliminate “the need for the Sentinel missile entirely.”