President Zuma’s biggest test yet

Johannesburg

The late former President Nelson Mandela famously told South Africans of his ruling African National Congress: “If the ANC does to you what the apartheid government did to you, then you must do to the ANC what you did to the apartheid government.”

Apartheid collapsed under the cost of its moral and financial corruption, popular mass action and crippling economic sanctions. Today South Africa has a president who was found by the highest court in the land to have failed the country’s constitution, but holds office with the support of an increasingly fractured ANC; civil society and religious leaders calling for mass protests; and economic stagnation brought about, in part, by political and fiscal uncertainty.

Long tainted by allegations of corruption and the use of his position and influence to enrich his friends and family, South African President, Jacob Zuma’s apparent disregard for the good governance has united growing opposition to his presidency. This is most probably his greatest strategic blunder.

At the end of March, the Constitutional Court found that Zuma had failed the constitution by not abiding by remedial action set out by the South African Public Protector, who found that he should repay some of the taxpayer’s money spent on renovating his private home, known as Nkandla.

After the Constitutional Court ruling, the ANC used its majority to defeat a motion in Parliament to impeach Zuma. Instead, the party accepted an apology from the president and his assurance that he would pay back a yet to be determined portion of the cost of the upgrade and implement the orders of the court. Despite damaging public fractures in its ranks — many past and present senior leaders of the ANC have asked him to step down — the majority of the organisation’s structures have come out in support of their president.

But, the apology was not enough for those opposed to Zuma. Immediately after the failure of the impeachment vote, the leaders of the two largest opposition parties in Parliament — the Democratic Alliance, a liberal party; and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) a radical movement led by young firebrands — stood side-by-side and vowed to continue trying to get rid of the president.

Mass demonstrations

The National Council of Religious Leaders and other church groupings met with the ANC leadership and asked them to “help” Zuma resign. In an astounding rebuke, the clergy refused to accept the apology from Zuma. “Zuma did not apologise for Nkandla. He only apologised for frustration and confusion. We cannot accept his apology because we are not confused,” said Bishop Ziphozihle Siwa of the Methodist Church.

One of the first tests of public support for those opposed to Zuma will be on April 27th, South African Freedom Day. A broad array of organisations — including ANC members — have called for mass demonstrations against Zuma.

Previous calls for protests against the president have met with a lukewarm response, but never has the apparent discontent with the South African president been so widespread across political and social divisions.

And then there are local government elections, scheduled for August this year. Even before the damaging Constitutional Court ruling, the ANC faced losing control of key cities and economic centres in the South Africa, according to some polls.

Zuma also has to take a share of the blame for South Africa’s stagnating economy. In its April World Economic Outlook, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts the economy will grow by 0,6 per cent in 2016 — dangerously low for a country battling persistently high unemployment and its accompanying social ills.

Backlash

Investors have been concerned about South Africa’s fiscal discipline after Zuma removed a finance minister, who was said to oppose big spending programmes favoured by the president or those close to him. After a backlash from the financial markets, Zuma was forced to replace the finance minister for a second time, leaving confidence in South Africa and its currency, the Rand, badly battered.

The new finance minister is battling to prevent the country’s investment rating being downgraded by international rating agencies, in the coming months.

Author and chairperson of Democracy Works, William Gumede, is sceptical about the ANC’s ability to save itself from Zuma — or cleaning up its ranks. His view is that powerful patronage networks have taken hold in the organisation and any attempt to tackle them would be strongly resisted. “It’s not impossible, but it would be difficult,” he told Gulf News.

Gumede points out that in many countries, liberation movements who eventually became bad governments, usually needed the shock of losing power, before they were able to regain their way.

The writer is a senior journalist based in Johannesburg.