Yearender: On road to new era of prosperity

The suspense was palpable in the air as the fate of the biggest gathering of Muslim leaders in three years hanged in balance. The whole Islamic world was looking to Qatar which was to host the Organisation of Islamic Conference.

Will the tiny Gulf state, with a population of just about 600,000, finally decide to cut its low-level trade ties with Israel and save the OIC summit? Regional heavyweights Saudi Arabia and Iran were holding back confirmation of their participation in the conference pending a decision by Qatar. The success of the meeting largely depended on their participation.

And on November 9, three days before the summit was scheduled to open Qatar announced that it had decided to close down the Israeli trade office. The announcement was greeted with great relief by the people in the state and the Islamic world.

The OIC summit was rescued and the 56-member organisation had a memorable gathering in Doha. Holding the summit, the end of the hearings at the International Court of Justice on Doha's territorial dispute with Bahrain and the announcement that Qatar will host the 2006 Asian Games were some of the major events to take place last year.

Qatar, which assumed the post of OIC chairman with the hosting of the summit, has always shown a streak of independence in its foreign policies. Policy decisions at the state level are never taken blindly. The conference demonstrated once again Qatar's diplomatic acumen as it successfully brought moderate and hardline Arab countries together behind the Doha Declaration released at the summit's end.

The absence of Bahrain Emir His Highness Sheikh Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa at the OIC summit was, however, an indication of the lingering territorial dispute between the two states. Qatar took the dispute to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in The Hague in 1991 after the failure of several mediation attempts.

The case, which focuses on Qatar's claim to the Hawar Islands and Fasht Al Dibel rocks, as well as Manama's claim to the Zubara strip on Qatar's west coast, has always been an irritant in the relations between the two GCC members.

Though the two states have agreed to desist from media attacks against each other over the dispute, a reference or a remark by even a minor official often sparks a heated exchange of words between the two. At the end of June, the ICJ wound up a five-week public hearing into the dispute and a verdict is expected by March this year.

Qatar's Emir His Highness Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani sees the conclusion of the ICJ hearing into the dispute and its impending judgement as one of the most significant events of 2000. The Emir, in an address to the Advisory Council in October, expressed his hope and belief that ICJ would "restore the right to its true owner", and by clearing up the dispute, would open a new era of relations bolstering peace and stability in the Gulf.

The Qatari leader's presence in the just-concluded GCC summit in Bahrain attests the importance Doha attaches to GCC integration and intra-Gulf links and once again underlines Qatar's diplomatic maturity.

On the economic front, higher oil prices are expected to produce a budget surplus for Qatar this year, bringing in a new era of prosperity for its nationals and workforce. The 2000-01 (April-March) budget had forecast a deficit of 2.8 billion Qatari riyals on spending of 15.4 billion Qatari riyals and an income of 12.6 billion Qatari riyals. But the budget was calculated on the basis of $15 a barrel for oil.

With oil prices hovering around double that price throughout the year, economic analysts now expect the 2000-2001 budget to achieve a surplus of 10.9 billion Qatari riyals which, they say, will further rise in 2001-2002. (Oil prices have dropped to around $24 since) Qatar, which holds the third largest gas reserve after Russia and Iran, aims to sell up to 25 million tons of gas a year by 2005, with Japan, Korea and India being targeted as its major markets.

Officials expect the state's gas exports to double its gross domestic product (GDP) from $9.8 billion at present to about $17 billion in 2003. Economic pundits see the UAE Offsets Group's agreement with French oil group TotalFina Elf and U.S. group Enron to cooperate on $10 billion gas project in Qatar as a landmark for the region in 2000.

The Dolphin project includes the construction of a gas pipeline linking Qatar with Abu Dhabi, Dubai and Oman. In sports, the Council of Asia's vote to let Doha host the 2006 Asian Games has been a moment of glory for the tiny Gulf state.

Doha beat Hong Kong, Kuala Lumpur and New Delhi in the vote at the council's general assembly in the South Korean city of Pusan. Hong Kong and Kuala Lumpur had been the favourites before the vote and the result came as a shock to the two cities.

The Asiad is expected to change the face of Qatar completely. Under the host contract which was signed after the vote, Doha had to agree to follow Olympic Council of Asia's constitution which guarantees women's participation in the Games. Doha is expected to spend $1 billion on facilities for the 2006 Games.