Pro-Estrada coup in January likely

A group of top ranking police and military men will intervene in case retired generals gain ground in the Armed Forces, in their call for the withdrawal of support for impeached President Joseph Estrada, said a former rebel military officer who joined a right wing rebel group in 1986.

In an interview, Col. (Retd.) Alexander Noble said members of the Philippine Military Academy (PMA) Class of '71 would set in motion a pro-Estrada movement. The group will include Philippine National Police (PNP) Chief, Panfilo Lacson; Senator Gregorio Honasan, who launched several failed coup plots against former president Corazon Aquino from 1986 to 1989;and Brig. Gen. Jake Malajacan, according to Col. Noble, who once led the failed military mutiny against Aquino in northern Mindanao in October, 1990.

"For all we know, President Estrada would give his blessings in exchange for some immunity in case he is found guilty by the impeachment court," Col. Noble added. The people involved in the plan occupy sensitive positions in the Armed Forces and the PNP and are likely to succeed in case they decide to intervene, Col. Noble noted.

"What they (would) do is issue only an order and the soldiers would march. We know that by experience," Col. Noble maintained, referring to coup attempts staged by rebellious military officers in the 1980s.

Lacson and other members of Class of '71 would cut that deal with Estrada to gain control of the country. "They can do it, especially if they have the backing of the U.S. government. I know these guys," Col. Noble said.

Col. Noble said the military intervention is likely to happen next month (January) as soon as the outcome of the impeachment trial against Estrada becomes apparent.

By then, the country would be wracked with massive demonstrations and the call aired by retired generals, led by former Defence Secretary Fortunato Abat, might have gained ground in the Armed Forces, said Lacson. "Something has to give way and the only way to do that is (through) a military intervention," Noble said.