Oil producing states must look ahead

Eter and Karadash are not famous lovers like Romeo and Juliet or Qays and Laila nor do they make up the title of an Indian film such as Shyam and Ram.

Eter is the name of a nuclear test scheme involving the European Union, the United States, Russia, Japan, China and South Korea at a cost of $12 billion (Dh44 billion) in the region of Karadash in the breathtaking area of south of France.

It is expected that after some 30 years, the scheme will bring about a major transformation such as that brought about by electricity and then oil since the end of the 19th century.

The participants in this scheme are seeking to obtain clean, unlimited and relatively cheap energy. All of them have come to understand the challenges awaiting them because of the shortage in sources of traditional energy such as oil and gas.

Why is the period fixed at 30 years? This is because oil is presumed to be readily available for 30 to 40 years after which it will remain like sweet memories for some nations and a source of concern and pollution for some others.

There is another question which is far more important. Will all this be realised and clean and unlimited energy be available? I do think so, because these nations have been able to achieve miracles individually, and this time they are together under one roof with their massive financial resources and enormous potentials.

Vision

Indeed, this is the vision of the industrial world with all its contradictions for the next phase. However, the vision of the developing world has not yet been clearly defined except in rare cases that we will discuss later on.

Oil and gas alternatives are currently scarce and limited, and the rising crude prices represent a new challenge to the economies of various countries, especially those involved in the Eter scheme.

Meanwhile, these countries do not want to see themselves in the middle of a crisis or at the mercy of the oil producing developing nations, most of whom are Arab and Islamic countries some of whom are unstable such as Iraq or are characterised by tense relations as in the case of Iran.

Certainly the oil producing countries, including the Arab states, have all the possibilities of producing their own vision for the post-oil era by finding alternative sources of income just as the industrial nations are seeking to finding alternative energy resources.

Possibilities

Indeed, the recent rises in crude prices intensify such possibilities for the oil producing nations and open up opportunities to implement economic programmes designed to diversify the sources of national income.

The UAE provides a model to be followed in this regard, as the share of oil in the country's GDP has declined from 70 per cent to 38 per cent in the last three decades.

The global changes are indeed significant. In order to be able to successfully compete and achieve levels of progress and stability, new strategies and visions must be worked out in the areas of energy, economy, education and community development in general.

As a priority, the oil producing countries must have their own scheme similar to the Eter programme for the next 30 years with a view to developing their production base and finding alternative sources of income.

They should also benefit from the successful experiences that we have just discussed.

The writer is a UAE economic expert. For feedback, Dr Asoomi could be contacted at: masoomi@gulfnews.com