New friendships forming fast in these changing times

As old alignments come under strain, new voices are emerging on the world stage. It is a stage that is a tad crowded as the main actors are finding the centre exceedingly hard to occupy because of a growing supporting cast that is showing an annoying reluctance to stick to the script.

However the Iraq issue plays out, regime change - with or without a shot being fired - seems to be a given.

And it is against this backdrop that the posturing on the part of 'old' and 'new' Europeans and others far removed from that once-powerful continent must be viewed.

The U.S., not feeling exactly cheerful about these voices of dissent, in what it sees as its sole 'superpower duty' in yet another critical juncture in history, has even pointed to 'old' Europe's lack of gratitude.

But to view the stubborn stance of old ally France, and Marshal-plan beneficiary Germany in these narrow terms is simplistic. Iraq, it seems, has emerged as the catalyst in a defining period in history for a host of nations to question habitual responses, and for others to strike out in bold new ways in a new century.

It would be juvenile to ignore the envy factor in this and similar situations. Even in the friendliest international groupings, the EU, Nato or any other, the overwhelming power of the big few is not something the smaller players are generally comfortable with.

In a reaction, triggered perhaps by memories of France's past grandeur, Jacques Chirac found it perfectly reasonable to lecture Romania and Bulgaria that they were "particularly irresponsible (to sign the letter) when their position is really delicate...if they wanted to diminish their chances of joining Europe, they could not have found a better way."

He was referring to the joint statement earlier this month by the so-called Vilnius 10 (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Bulgaria, Romania, Croatia, Macedonia, Albania) that went even further than the so-called Gang of Eight last month in pledging support for the U.S. over Iraq.

The joint letter last month signed by Spain, Britain, Denmark, Italy, Portugal, Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland calling for Europe to stand united behind the U.S. over Iraq, has been seen as direct retaliation for the anti-war positions adopted by France and Germany.

If truth be told, the continent's Big Two are anxious to assert themselves even at the risk of annoying, even alienating, other EU members. They can't be comfortable with the level of influence in world affairs that Britain is enjoying despite opposition both in parliament and on the street to Tony Blair's pro-American stand.

With the UN's relevance also being called into question, the global fissures set off by Iraq could only lead to far-reaching geopolitical changes and new alliances.

Some possible scenarios: At the UN, a mix of member nations call for an expansion of the Security Council to seven veto-wielding members. Arguing that the five permanent members were named in an original grouping of 51, which has grown to 191 today, they prevail in getting Japan and Germany admitted.

Both nations had been mentioned for some time as the most likely to succeed in terms of a larger Security Council, for their economic clout - Japan as the world's second largest economy with $460 billion in foreign reserves; Germany as one of the major engines still driving European growth.

While a much larger Nato remains intact in a symbiotic relationship, America looks far beyond to eastern Europe for its defence outposts. In this 'expanded Europe' of a new epoch, the old Soviet bloc nations are only too glad to accommodate the Americans, whose only problem seems to be in settling on a choice of locations.

Just the other day Bidla Podlaska, a Polish village some of you might not have heard of, was tipped to become the new American headquarters of Europe in the event of U.S. forces pulling out of Germany.

Not being able to stave off any of these changes in its backyard, Russia decides to join the U.S. in a new big power alliance. The North Korean nuclear issue lends itself to easy solution, with Washington having recognised Pyongyang's belligerent posture for what it was: a call for help by a near-dysfunctional economy. Russian goodwill and a massive American-Japanese infusion of funds gets North Korea's economy going on a level of growth which rivals the best in the region.

And in a mammoth anti-poverty initiative, which makes the Marshall Plan look like small change, the U.S. steps in as the major contributor in a multi-billion dollar development aid package that changes the desperate lives of tens of millions of people in Latin America, Asia, Africa and the Middle East.

Washington's and Moscow's seminal achievement, however, is in finally bringing justice to Palestine. The former Cold War foes succeed in putting into effect the two-nation solution and both Israelis and Palestinians get on with their lives within secure borders.

Anyone out there who thinks any of this is outrageously far-fetched, should remember that the Soviet empire was still around in 1988....