Letter from Islamabad: Questions galore as Musharraf celebrates four years in power

General Pervez Musharraf, Pakistan's military ruler, commemorates his four years in power today, perhaps not knowing how he would approach his fifth anniversary next year.

Months of haggling between the opposition and Prime Minister Mir Zafarullah Khan Jamali's regime over questions tied to Pakistan's future constitutional and political arrangements, has left much of a fallout.

The opposition's consistent demand in seeking General Musharraf's retirement from the Pakistani military as a prerequisite for continuing in the presidential office has been the subject of wide ranging speculation.

As yet, there are no credible clues to claims from some opposition leaders that Musharraf has agreed in principle to step down as the military chief by December 2004. If so, his fifth anniversary next year may indeed be a step closer to a shift in Pakistan's political balance of power, bringing along compelling questions about the future of a country where democracy remains troubled.

But the year between the fourth and the fifth anniversary is bound to surround Pakistan with continuing uncertainty over its political future, as opposition parties must only take the route of further agitation. Exactly what the opposition achieves from its otherwise at best modest activism remains an unanswered question.

At a time when Pakistan's two mainstream party leaders remain in exile and there are indeed no indications of their return anytime soon, the role of the opposition promises to remain lackluster. The divisions after the death of Nawabzada Nasrullah Khan, leader of the Alliance for the Restoration of Democracy, which culminated in the appointment of an alliance chairman and a president, spoke volumes over the disarray in opposition ranks. The failure to agree on a single candidate for what may eventually be a more symbolic than real position, only reinforces the underlying discord in opposition ranks.

Ironically though, the General who came to power with promises of turning around Pakistan's destiny, has few opportunities to take solace from the opposition's weakness. With the passage of time, the gap between General Musharraf's promises and performance of his government, has only reinforced the message that Pakistan's outlook remains far from where it could be.

The disarray in politics and a largely weak economic outlook for mainstream Pakistanis, notwithstanding the official claims of economic rejuvenation, must remain on the country's radar screen, with or without official acknowledgement. For General Musharraf, remaining in power still raises questions over his ability to take charge of Pakistan.