Election Focus: PML-QA has little hope in Toba Tek Singh

As the process of reviewing the final candidates for seats across Punjab starts, it would seem that despite its status as the officially-backed party, the Pakistan Muslim League Quaid-e-Azam (PML-QA) is not quite as strong as it would appear.

An indication of this comes at Toba Tek Singh, in the central Punjab, with three seats (NA 92, NA 93 and NA 94) up for contest in this district.

In this district, both the PML-N and the PPPP have several strong front-runners and it would seem these individuals will give an extremely tough run to the PML-QA.

The main 'strong man' for the PML-N is Mohammed Hamza, a veteran leader who has repeatedly won his seat in the last two elections. He will once again contest from NA 92, and at present seems set to emerge the victor.

Hamza faces a newcomer, Sajjad Rabbani of the PML-QA. By awarding the ticket to the little known Rabbani, who has a reputation as being an 'educated' man, the PML-QA has in fact angered some of the traditional clans in the area, and this factor is likely to work in favour of Hamza.

Indeed. Hamza could face the toughest contest from an independent candidate, Mohammad Bilal Warraich, who has decided to go it alone after failing to win a ticket from a major party. Despite this, he is seen as a strong contender and it is believed he will be Hamza's main opponent.

The Muttahida Majlis-e -Amal (MMA) has fielded Qari Zawwar Bahadur from this seat while the PPPP's candidate will be Haji Mohammed Ishaq. However, on a seat where the PML has traditionally dominated, neither are seen as potential winners.

For NA-93, the seat that incorporates the city of Toba Tek Singh, the candidate seen as the front-runner is Hafizullah Ishaq, a former chairman of the Central Bureau of Revenue (CBR) who is contesting on a PPPP ticket.

He is expected to face strong opposition from independent candidate Mian Farhan Latif who is also the nephew of the district mayor.

Mayor Chaudhry Ashfaq is a former PPP loyalist who switched to the PML-QA after he decided to contest for the leadership of the district council. It is believed that his decision to put up his nephew as an independent candidate is a more aimed at keeping the many PPPP voters in the area "happy".

The PML-N candidate from the area, Chaudhry Amjad Ali, is seen as "weak" and it is predicted that he may in fact withdraw in favour of the PPPP.

The PML-QA is represented by Mian Abdul Waheed, who is again not given much of a chance by poll observers. On NA-94, the front-runner by a considerable margin is former federal minister Khalid Kharal, a veteran PPP leader.

Kharal is backed on this seat by the PML-N, and as such is seen as almost certain to win it. The PML-QA candidate and the MMA are thought likely not to give him serious opposition. As such, it would seem that in Toba Tek Singh, the PML-QA is in real danger of finishing behind both the PPPP and the PML-N.

Indeed, there are some indications that the difficulties faced by the party in this area also extend to other parts of Punjab, where PML-QA men are up against veteran PPP and PML-N leaders.

The tough stance taken recently by the election commission against intervention in the poll process by administrative officials and its warning to police to avoid harassing opposition candidates could also signal tougher times ahead for the PML-QA.

The warning means that officials will need to watch their steps carefully to avoid sanction, with the EC stating it will "no longer tolerate" any effort to interfere in the balloting process or the preparations for the polls.

It is also understood that the PML-N has agreed to re-enter talks with the PPP on support for each others candidates on some "select" seats. This will also add to the worries for the PML-QA and its leadership.

The situation taking shape in most parts of Punjab suggest this poll campaign may prove to be an extremely close.