ASEAN faces a precarious path ahead

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) foreign ministers met in Langkawi, an idyllic Malaysian resort town recently — soon after Malaysia assumed the rotating chairmanship of the organisation for 2025.

The ASEAN is currently faced with several pressing issues: the ongoing civil unrest in Myanmar following the 2021 military coup, maritime disputes in the South China Sea, and the broader United States-China rivalry. The bloc’s ability to effectively address these and other geopolitical challenges is about to be seriously tested, especially given the diverging views of its member states.

As one of the founding members and a heavyweight within, much is expected of Malaysia by the partners and the international community. With the first major meeting of the year, Malaysia hopes to have set the bloc’s direction for the year ahead.

Amid the global uncertainties members stressed the urgency to bolster regional unity and make economic integration a top priority declared Malaysian Foreign Minister Mohamad Hasan.

Myanmar crises — the most severe ASEAN has faced, erupted in 2021 when the military overthrew the elected government and has since then refused to pursue the agreed path towards the restoration of legitimate government. It has plunged the country into deeper conflict. Tens of thousands have since been killed fighting the military with rebels controlling large parts of the country. In addition to refugees streaming into ASEAN, millions are internally displaced. The country faces economic collapse.

ASEAN has suspended the military junta’s participation in the meetings and the country is now represented by the senior officials of the concerned ministries. At the meeting in Langkawi the ASEAN dismissed Myanmar’s election plans and told them that ASEAN’s “priority is to stop the violence.”

The military has, in the meantime, dragged its feet over the peace plan. And ASEAN’s non-interference and consensus driven working disallows a firmer action against the military junta.

As for South China Sea (SCS), notwithstanding the historic claims, in 1947 the Kuomintang (KMT) government formally asserted its claim over SCS by publishing an official map with 11 dash line. None of the WWII victors — the US, UK or France objected. In 1952 Communist China and North Vietnam delineated their boundary in the Gulf of Tonkin and two dashes were erased in Vietnam’s favour.

The contest over the SCS containing China’s maritime lifeline, marine and undersea riches started from late 1970s onwards and now threatens to draw several states into a hot contest. Since the overlapping claims are largely between China and some ASEAN states, couple of whom overtly backed by the US and its allies the question assumes dangerous propositions.

To prevent conflict China and the ASEAN in 2002 issued a Declaration on the Conduct of the Parties, setting up a binding Code of Conduct (COC) among parties. Because of high stakes the agreed draft was only tabled in 2018, progress in the COC talks has been grindingly slow. The negotiations are unlikely to be completed by next year, which was the initial estimate.

Philippines, that has the largest overlapping claims over the SCS with China is seemingly impatient. Others, to a varying degree, have preferred to continue talking to China to resolve the claims through quiet diplomacy. At the end of the day, it is a big power contest between the US, which continues to assert its right of ‘freedom of navigation’ in open seas and rising China, who cannot be truly a global power till it controls maritime access to its coast line.

ASEAN’s dilemma is that it is economically intertwined with China while a few in ASEAN are hedging their bets by drawing the US into the region to prevent complete domination by China. ASEAN cannot afford to take sides.

Reducing the risk of conflict

Malaysia should use its chairmanship to elevate confidence-building measures and preventive diplomacy at the ASEAN—China level to reduce the risk of conflict in the South China Sea.

As a country coordinator for ASEAN — China relationship till 2027 it is well placed to play a constructive role in advancing this relationship. Malaysia’s best course of action will be to keep the South China Sea Code of Conduct negotiations channel open.

ASEAN has been a beneficiary of a free, stable global environment for over 50 years for which American contribution is enormous. But Trump’s presidency’s likely ushering in a new order is the big challenge for Malaysia, as Chair of ASEAN.

Malaysia will need to navigate these changes and find opportunities for ASEAN to continue to thrive economically.

Sajjad Ashraf served as an adjunct professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore from 2009 to 2017. He was a member of Pakistan Foreign Service from 1973 to 2008 and served as an ambassador to several countries.