ASEAN’s smallest member Laos hosted the 44th Summit meeting of the organisation earlier in the month. The ASEAN Summit was also an opportunity for the East Asia Summit (EAS) that brings together ASEAN with US, China, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Russia, India and Republic of Korea.
China’s President Xi Jinping, Russian President Putin and the US President Joe Biden were the notable absentees. This was a summit shadowed by transitions within the ASEAN. Japan, Singapore and Thailand were represented by the new Prime Ministers.
The summits were held in the backdrop of heightened geopolitical tensions resulting from wars in the Middle East and in Ukraine. There has also been escalating Sino-American rivalry during the year since the last summit casting a shadow over ASEAN’s policy choices.
The ten member ASEAN bloc makes up the third largest regional economy in Asia and fifth-largest in the world, lending significant clout to the grouping. The EAS, which is a spin-off of the ASEAN puts US, Russia and China under one roof under cover of the ASEAN. This is indeed rare.
“An immediate cessation”
The two main issues that dogged the organisation for some years are the: ongoing negotiations with China over Code of Conduct for the South China Sea (SCS); and the ongoing conflict and the consequent humanitarian crises that has engulfed Myanmar since the military takeover of 2021.
The expanding armed resistance against Myanmar’s military government is a major concern for the bloc. While the ASEAN still continues to standby its five-point peace consensus over Myanmar -- adopted at a special summit in 2021 -- the lack of progress on its implementation has led to some 18.6 million people, more than a third of Myanmar’s population, in need of humanitarian assistance. ASEAN welcomed Thailand’s initiative to host informal talks on Myanmar, possibly joined by other ASEAN members, later this year.
The Chair’s statement called for “an immediate cessation” of violence and the creation of a “conducive environment for the delivery of humanitarian assistance and inclusive national dialogue” that is “Myanmar-owned and-led”.
On SCS the Chair’s statement called for confidence-building measures to “reduce tensions and the risk of accidents, misunderstandings and miscalculation” in the South China Sea.
South China Sea is a theatre of growing geostrategic contest between the US and its allies on one side and China on the other. Over $3 trillion worth of trade passes annually through this strategically vital sea.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, raised concerns at increasing violence in clashes over the SCS while reiterating the US commitment to support freedom of navigation and overflights in the Asia-Pacific region, which the US renamed as Indo-Pacific a few years back.
The Chinese Premier Li Qiang accused “external forces” of introducing “bloc confrontation and geopolitical conflicts into Asia.” The US has no claims in the SCS, but has deployed navy ships and fighter jets to patrol the waters.
Malaysia, which takes over the rotating chair of the 10-member ASEAN next year, is expected to push to accelerate talks on the code of conduct, which officials have agreed to complete by 2026. The discussions on the code of conduct that have dragged for years have now been hampered by disagreements over whether the pact should be binding.
The SCS is vital for China as the biggest trading nation. Much of China’s maritime trade passes through the SCS. President Xi Jinping has nonetheless, guaranteed freedom for commercial maritime traffic in the SCS.
It is essential for regional states to seek win-win solutions that consider Beijing’s security needs. In turn, China must also ensure that smaller nations enjoy the economic benefits within their maritime boundaries. Only a secure and equitable Southeast Asia will keep the outsiders at bay.
Sajjad Ashraf served as an adjunct professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore from 2009 to 2017. He was a member of Pakistan Foreign Service from 1973 to 2008 and served as an ambassador to several countries.
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