Before peace can begin, Palestinians must unite

The prospects for peace in the Palestinian reality are diminishing. The war on Gaza has been ongoing for nearly two years, the humanitarian conditions in the Strip are dire, security entanglements persist in the West Bank, and Israel continues to backtrack on any promises regarding a Palestinian state through policies that systematically undermine the two-state solution. Moreover, the internal Palestinian division weakens the overall Palestinian position, obstructs regional and international support for the two-state solution, and provides Israel with an excuse to evade its commitments, given the absence of a unified Palestinian authority and leadership.

Although the two-state solution has been effectively frozen for years and international support for resolving the Palestinian issue has waned, the situation on the ground has gotten worse with the deepening rift between Fatah and Hamas and the absence of a national unity government that represents all Palestinians. This division not only weakens the Palestinian negotiating position but also hampers all international efforts in support of the two-state solution. The longer the division persists before the dream of statehood is realised, the more international confidence in the feasibility of the two-state solution erodes.

The fundamental issue lies in the disagreement over the structure of authority in both the West Bank and Gaza. Consequently, achieving a Palestinian state may not even be the ultimate endpoint, and perhaps this solution is no longer realistic enough.

The future of the entire region — not just the West Bank and Gaza — is linked to the fate of the two-state solution. The ongoing war in Gaza and the broader regional conflicts cast dark shadows over the region’s future. Despite differing visions for the future and competition between those who seek dominance and those looking to secure zones of influence, opportunities still exist. The Palestinian issue has returned to the forefront of international concern, and there is a growing desire to reach practical solutions, even if each party envisions such solutions differently.

If we genuinely wish to replace war with peace and resolve the Palestinian cause, the first practical step must be for the Palestinian factions currently in control to step back, either voluntarily or through a roadmap proposed by Arab and international powers. These factions have not been moved toward reconciliation despite the tremendous suffering caused by the Israeli war on Gaza. Therefore, the so-called “moderate powers” in the region must exert the necessary effort to manage this issue as a step toward a just and lasting peace based on the two-state solution.

However, this is no easy task. Reconciliation efforts have been ongoing since 2007, from Mecca to Cairo (2009 and 2011), Doha (2012), Al Shati (2014), back to Cairo (2017), Algiers (2022), and most recently, Moscow and Beijing in 2024. Yet, none have succeeded in achieving reconciliation. The division is political, geographic, and ideological, and even the vision of a national project seems to be contested. While the people of Gaza continue to suffer, Fatah and Hamas continue to exchange accusations, each blaming the other for crises and setting preconditions whenever reconciliation appears within reach.

With the Palestinian house in disarray and the Palestinian Authority weakened, there is an urgent need for new policies to move toward a settlement. Supporters of the Palestinian cause around the world have not been able to capitalise on opportunities as they arise. Despite support from the United States, Russia, China, the European Union, the United Nations, and the Arab and Islamic countries for the two-state solution as a path to lasting peace, the internal Palestinian dispute remains a major obstacle to international peace efforts. Palestinian factions are competing for control over territories recognised under international law as occupied, and no new dialogue frameworks have emerged for years.

Palestinians largely agree on the importance of political and economic reform, but prolonged delays in implementing such reforms fuel a cycle of mistrust and drive some toward extremism. In Gaza, options are virtually non-existent. Between Fatah and Hamas’s divergent visions of struggle, people expect little other than death inching closer with every passing minute as Israel’s relentless war on Gaza continues.

Governments around the world are increasingly preoccupied with the Palestinian issue, either due to internal political imperatives or to address rising polarisation over Palestine. This could lead more global powers than ever before to reevaluate their approaches and abandon the policy of ignoring the conflict.

This moment may offer a chance to launch genuine peace talks toward the creation of a Palestinian state through a revitalised two-state solution. Several international actors now seek a role in the Middle East peace process. However, the ongoing war on Gaza and the absence of a credible Palestinian partner complicate and hinder efforts to reach a solution and make agreement on core issues extremely difficult.

While resolving internal Palestinian disputes may not be easy, there are points on which to build. For instance, Fatah and Hamas have agreed in principle to form a joint social support committee to oversee matters such as border crossings, healthcare, humanitarian relief, shelter, social development, and education in Gaza, under the authority of the Palestinian government. Yet obstacles remain concerning the selection of committee members, implementation mechanisms, tools, and timelines. In parallel, the Palestinian Authority has introduced the position of Vice-President and made minor government reforms.

But to bring about changes that can spur international engagement, real reform of the political system is required, closing the chapter of internal division based on national foundations that would enable elections and produce a unified Palestinian leadership capable of representing Palestine in international negotiations.

For serious international engagement to materialise, Palestinians need a consensus-based leadership, formed through elections across the West Bank, East Jerusalem, and Gaza as soon as possible and within the most suitable environment. Without leadership change, any revival of negotiations is doomed to fail.

Only with new leadership can the Palestinians move to confront core challenges related to borders, settlements in the West Bank and Jerusalem, the future of Jerusalem, the right of return, and the form of the future state. Such negotiations could be organised and supported by an international coalition with Arab participation to craft a roadmap that sets the foundations of the two-state solution and mechanisms for implementation. The stability of the Middle East cannot be achieved without a solution to the Palestinian issue.

Sultan Majed Al Ali is a researcher and Deputy Head of Dubai Office Sector – TRENDS Research & Advisory