After the war, the reckoning: Can Gaza’s ceasefire pave the way for a Palestinian state?

The scene of thousands of displaced Palestinians in Gaza returning to the northern and central areas of the Strip following the partial withdrawal of the Israeli army, after the ceasefire agreement came into effect, has become a focal point of global attention. The crisis has shifted from war and destruction to hopes that the agreement will contribute to a permanent end to the conflict, closing the chapter on hostilities and moving toward the establishment of a Palestinian state, with all the significant positive implications this holds for stability in the Middle East.

There is widespread hope that what is happening marks the beginning of a new phase in the Palestinian issue, which has been dominated by militias over the past two years. The plan presented by US President Donald Trump, in coordination with mediators and Arab and Islamic powers, provides a strong foundation for peace in Gaza after hope seemed lost.

The journey to the current situation began during the New York meeting in mid-September 2025, with the main Arab and Islamic actors in the Gaza file, aimed at ending the war, followed by negotiations in Sharm El Sheikh among the relevant parties and mediators from the region and the United States.

Arab and international efforts paved the way for an agreement on the first phase of the peace plan, with mediators and regional powers exerting pressure to reach the point of agreement. This regional and international coordination was crucial: the release of prisoners and detainees, the return of displaced persons from the southern Strip to Gaza City and northern Gaza, and the advancement of a future full of hope and peace for the residents of the Strip would not have been possible without these significant diplomatic efforts.

The American side not only provided a plan led by Trump to end the war but also offered guarantees against a return to conflict, which likely played a key role in reaching the current agreement. Additionally, a US-led military task force supervises the ceasefire and addresses potential violations, as deploying an international stabilisation force in the Strip is essential to implement the agreement effectively, ensure its sustainability, and grant it international legitimacy and participation.

Border crossings have resumed to allow aid trucks at rates approaching those before Hamas’ attack on October 7, 2023, alongside preparations for the hostage and prisoner exchange process.

At the same time, preparations are underway for Gaza’s recovery and reconstruction. The future of Gaza does not stop at ending the war; it encompasses rebuilding and restoring normal life for its residents, transitioning from the two years of disaster caused by Hamas’s attack on Israel to a life of hope and stability.

With the completion of the first phase, negotiations begin on the second phase, addressing the full withdrawal and ensuring a permanent cessation of hostilities, closing a chapter that exhausted the entire region and opening a future that rejects renewed fighting. The war imposed heavy costs on all parties, and time may allow Palestinians to overcome internal divisions, prepare for future challenges, and assume full governance responsibilities through transparent reforms and mechanisms that change the current reality.

Critical points in the post-war peace plan, such as disarming Palestinian factions and preventing Hamas from participating in Gaza’s governance, have been deferred to later stages. Hamas drove the Strip toward disaster with its October 7 attack and must step aside from governance, leaving the sector to independent authorities that do not jeopardise Palestinian lives. Disarmament and neutralisation of military structures are challenging due to the factions’ weapons and complex tunnel networks, as well as their control over daily civilian affairs, highlighting the urgency of defining and implementing a post-war vision on the ground.

Hamas’s absence from direct governance does not necessarily mean the movement’s end, especially if it uses the period for reconstruction. It may willingly relinquish control, which requires a clear governance vision in Gaza, even during a transitional phase, given the weakness and corruption of the Palestinian Authority and its inability to lead a broadly accepted and effective post-war administration independent of militias.

Gaza and the region require guarantees to prevent the resumption of war in the coming years. On-the-ground implementation of the plan is key to defining the future, but Arab and Islamic powers, in cooperation with the United States and international actors, must continue toward a two-state solution and the establishment of a Palestinian state. The transition from a temporary agreement to a comprehensive resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is essential for sustainable peace in the Middle East and the pursuit of development and prosperity policies.

The US peace plan has enabled a breakthrough in negotiations to end the war in Gaza. If the plan proceeds, it will support reconstruction efforts, mobilise funding, and revive the Strip after its destruction. Achieving permanent peace requires continued efforts from all parties to prevent the ceasefire from being only a temporary pause before the next round of conflict, months or years from now. Success depends on fully implementing the peace plan across security, political, and economic dimensions, including reconstruction, ultimately achieving a fundamental resolution to the conflict.

For lasting peace in the Middle East, mutual trust between the parties and agreement on ending the conflict are essential. This opens new opportunities for young generations, free from extremism and terrorism, beyond the immediate halt of Gaza’s tragedy and the end of the two-year war.

Following the October 7 disaster, the balance in the Middle East shifted. Arab states, with key international powers, played a critical role in finding a way out of the conflict, and their continued involvement is vital for ending the conflict, establishing a Palestinian state, and addressing the roots of the conflict to prevent further destructive disputes in the region.

A two-state solution remains central to the Palestinian issue, but it requires international political will and Palestinian consensus. Progress on this path would positively impact Palestinians’ lives and the broader region and open avenues for development, investment, and sustainable peace.

Alanood Jasim Alhosani is a Researcher at TRENDS Research & Advisory