Dubai: The situation in many Arab countries changed dramatically this year — dictators who had ruled for decades were toppled and the first ‘free' elections are under way for both Tunisia and Egypt.
Surely, emerging Arab democracies in the region are eagerly looking at the outcome of the catalyst country which paved the way for the Arab Spring? As Islamist parties in Tunisia and Egypt and even Libya seem to be the best organised, is the Arab world and the West prepared to welcome them to power if they dominate in the polls?
Analysts speaking to Gulf News underplayed Western ‘fears' of Islamist-led governments emerging in the Middle East, and say that if they come to power, their ideology will have to move from right to centre. They also say the West exaggerates the possibility of dramatic change and if they come to power there will be little change of the realities on the ground.
"The West is basing its fear on impressions not facts," Dia Rashwan, an expert in Islamic movements in the Arab world told Gulf News from his Cairo-based Al Ahram Strategic Studies Centre.
He pointed out that the revolutions that swept the region were in fact not started or even led by Islamists — they came from the more liberal, leftist, nationalist and socialist segments of society.
In fact, if there was any animosity between the West and Islamists, it was only because the West had supported dictators who for decades oppressed Islamists, while the West turned a blind eye.
If Islamists do come to power they will be faced with the same social and economic challenges of their predecessors and they will be under public scrutiny to deliver.
Building alliances
Islamists realise the task is daunting and recognise that despite their large support base they will need to reach out and build alliances with other parties — including leftists and secularists. While the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt is seeking a larger political role it doesn't want to be solely responsible for everything.
With power comes responsibility and blame, and the Brotherhood does not want to be ‘blamed' if it is unable to adequately deliver to the Egyptian people.
"The Brotherhood wants to have a substantial political presence but it does not want to have the governing majority," Nathan Brown, an expert on the Muslim Brotherhood and Political Science professor at George Washington University, told Gulf News. "They are afraid [failures] will provoke domestic and international backlash," he said.
As for Tunisians, if Islamists gain a majority in the government, they will be forced to be ‘moderate Islamists', according to Nejib Ayachi, founder and president of the Maghreb Centre, a think-tank on North African affairs based in Washington. Islamists are expected to win between 20 and 30 per cent of the seats in Tunisia.
Tunisians are unwilling to give up their secular life and freedom and are not willing to trade in dictatorship to live under religious oppression, he told Gulf News.
