Dubai: The hotly-contested May 9 general elections hinge on several issues, though curbing crime and corruption had become the defining themes of the three-month campaign.
These are lingering concerns that will be key to the Monday vote and help set the country's direction over the next six years:
Turnout
There are 54.4 million registered voters this year (out of a population of over 100 million), with 1.37 million overseas voters. Nearly 594,000 Filipino voters are registered in the Middle East and Africa (194,621 in the UAE). Overseas voter turnout tends to be low — less than 20% in the last two elections — but local turnout averaged 75 per cent.
A Filipina votes at the Philippine Consulate in Dubai.
Credibility
More than 20,000 troops and police officers will be deployed to ensure credible elections on May 9. Allegations of poll fraud in overseas voting had proven to be false. One claim of rigged voting machines during local tests emerged on social media and is being investigated. Poll technology provider Smartmatic claimed on Friday (May 6) their system is foolproof. An election commissioner cited six reports of voter receipt discrepancies out of more than 300,00 ballots already been cast in overseas absentee voting. What international observers see is also key to the vote’s credibility.
China
The Philippines’ frayed ties with an increasingly assertive China, which has reclaimed islands in an area that belongs to the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone, is a key post-election issue. Manila's posture on the South China Sea and the way it handles diplomatic and trade relations with the mainland will have far-reaching effects on its economy over the next six years.
Crime, drugs, corruption
The 2016 vote is seen as a referendum on the government’s inability to tackle corruption. The Philippines suffers from a massive image problem due to rampant graft, bribery, embezzlement, backdoor deals, nepotism, and patronage. While some argue it's part of the culture, others are convinced Filipinos can have a clean break from it with tougher leadership. Billions of pesos had been siphoned off in the past through pork barrel” funds, formally known as Countrywide Development Funds, that ended up lining the pockets of senators and congressmen. In 2013, the Supreme Court declared the pork barrel allocations to lawmakers unconstitutional. Crime, corruption and drugs had dominated the pre-election debates. Many of the voters, however, seem convinced that only an "iron first", i.e. summary executions even of suspects involved in the most serious crimes and drugs trade, would work. This, however, has caused alarm among human rights advocates.
Social media
Filipinos are immensely soaked up in social media, which has created bitter divisions among friends and family members. Social media bashing has become a key theme in the runup to the balloting — across geographies, time-zones, family as well as religious lines. Social media have also scaled up disinformation to unprecedented levels. On the other hand, it showed an effective feedback mechanism, forged more cohesive social connections and indicates the public's heightened engagement in governance.
Religious groups
The Church and State are not really separated in the Philippines as politicians actively seek the endorsement of religious groups. Church groups are happy to endorse whomever they see fit, but usually in exchange for cushy positions in government for some of their members.
Poverty amidst wealth
The Philippines has the world’s third-largest confirmed gold reserves and fourth- largest copper mines. It’s the top nickel supplier to China and Japan, and is second-biggest producer of geothermal power after the US. It also produces 29,000 barrels of oil per day, expected to double by 2019. Natural gas production jumped 650-fold, from 188 million standard cubic feet (scf) in 1996 to 122.5 billion scf in 2015, according to the Department of Energy. Still, one-third of the population of about 100m live on less than $2 a day.
The financial district of Makati, in Manila, and (inset) a boy jumping off a bridge to the murky waters of one of the city's 'esteros' lined by informal settlers' houses. Bridging the rich-poor gap will be the key challenge to the next administration.
Wealth fund
Certain candidates have talked about creating a trust fund, or sovereign wealth fund (SWF), from gambling revenues as well as mineral wealth to shore up an anti-poverty drive. It remains to be seen whether the next leaders (particularly in Congress) could firm up a law creating an SWF similar to the Pension Fund of Norway, currently the world’s biggest with $900 billion in assets, which came from surplus wealth from its mineral resources (mostly oil).
Economy
The Philippines became one of world’s economic growth stars under President Benigno Aquino III, with numerous credit ratings upgrades and a boom in business, manufacturing and property development. Aquino scaled up the conditional cash transfer (CCT) to cover 5 million poor children, from just 300,000 under Gloria Arroyo. The World Bank has credit the CCT as a successful model in curbing ‘generational poverty’.
Infrastructure
Compared to its neighbours, the Philippines lags behind in infrastructure. Massive traffic snarls in Metro Manila and a creaky train service had been a key election issue, in addition to snail-paced internet service.
Military
Certain elements in and out of military say a coup will be more likely in the event Davao Mayor Rodrigo Duterte wins, because of his close links with the armed left. Duterte, who portrays himself as an anti-establishment leader, had said in the past he may get assassinated if he becomes president. Part of his campaign promise is to double the salary of the police and the military.
Federalism
A Duterte win, which pollsters say is likely, could see for the first time a serious move to change the Philippines Charter to refect a federal form of government. The present presidential-unitary form has ran its full course and proved ineffective in addressing concerns of outlying regions, many observers believe. This change is hoped by many to correct the wrongs of the past 30 years in which Manila has a say in everything that happens in all the far-flung provinces. But the switch is also riddled with pitfalls and could eventually see the Philippines being cut up into fiefdoms, each demanding independence.
